The Met Office is to extend its weather forecasts to 14 days, introducing a probability-based approach to improve public decision-making. The new two-week forecast, covering rainfall, wind speed and temperatures, will be available on the Met Office website and app in the coming months.
Currently, the publicly funded service offers a seven-day forecast with an hourly breakdown for the first five days and a three-hourly breakdown for the final two. While many weather apps already provide 14-day outlooks, the Met Office had previously refrained due to accuracy challenges. However, new research from the organisation indicates that probabilistic forecasts can better inform weather-based decisions.
Met Office science fellow Ken Mylne, author of the research, said: “Most previous discussions on expressing probabilities in forecasts started from an assumption that they can be hard for people to understand and that expressing uncertainty could undermine people’s confidence in the forecast... However, this research suggests that this assumption is wrong. People can understand probabilistic forecasts and could indeed find it more useful for informing weather-based decisions.”
The move follows a period of innovation in forecasting, with artificial intelligence being used to develop advanced models. Earlier this week, tech company Nvidia announced its Earth-2 weather forecasting models, claiming faster and more accurate forecasts. In December 2024, Google DeepMind said its AI weather program performed up to 20% better than the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts' ENS forecast.
