This year's Atlantic hurricane season is forecast to be calmer than normal, but the eastern Pacific season is expected to be more active, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The contrasting outlooks are attributed to the El Niño climate pattern, which suppresses hurricane development in the Atlantic while enhancing conditions in the Pacific.
NOAA forecasts 9 to 14 hurricanes in the eastern Pacific, including 5 to 9 major hurricanes, with a 70 percent chance of above-normal activity. The eastern Pacific season began on May 15 and runs through November 30. In contrast, the Atlantic region may see only 1 to 3 major hurricanes and 3 to 6 hurricanes overall.
Despite the calmer Atlantic forecast, officials warned that catastrophic Category 5 storms could still strike the eastern US. “It’s very important to understand that it only takes one,” said Dr. Neil Jacobs, NOAA’s administrator. “We have had Category 5s make landfall in the past during below average seasons.”
Record-warm ocean temperatures linked to climate change have supercharged Atlantic hurricanes, leading to rapid intensification. Ken Graham, director of NOAA’s National Weather Service, noted that storms can now become major hurricanes in just a few days. “Every Category 5 that’s made landfall in this country was a tropical storm or less three days out,” he said, urging early preparation.
The last below-average Atlantic season forecast was in 2015. Last year’s Atlantic season was unusually quiet due to a high-pressure area that steered storms away from the coast. Meanwhile, Hawaii, which bears the brunt of eastern Pacific storms, rarely receives direct hurricane hits but has experienced deadly impacts from winds and flooding in recent years.
