Forecasters say this year's Atlantic hurricane season will be calmer than typical - but the Pacific coast isn't as lucky. That's because of a forming climate pattern known as a super El Niño.
NOAA Forecasts Contrasting Hurricane Seasons
This year's Atlantic hurricane season is forecast to be calmer than normal - but the eastern Pacific season won't be as lucky, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. That's because of a seasonal climate pattern known as El Niño, which can suppress hurricane development over the Atlantic Ocean and increase those conditions over the Pacific.
An especially strong El Niño has contributed to a 70 percent chance of above-normal activity in the eastern Pacific, including storms that hit Hawaii and sometimes the West Coast. The agency forecasts 9 to 14 hurricanes, including 5 to 9 major hurricanes. The season started on May 15 and typically runs through November 30, the end of the June 1 Atlantic hurricane season.
However, while the Atlantic region could only see 1 to 3 major hurricanes and 3 to 6 hurricanes, officials stressed that catastrophic Category 5 storms could still hit the eastern U.S. - and hit fast.
Expert Warnings and Historical Context
NOAA says that while the Atlantic hurricane season is expected to see below-normal levels of activity, the eastern Pacific hurricane season could be especially active this year. That's because of a seasonal climate pattern known as El Niño.
“It's very important to understand that it only takes one,” Dr. Neil Jacobs, NOAA's administrator, told reporters in a related news conference. The last time there was a forecast for a below-average Atlantic season was 2015, Matthew Rosencrans, the lead hurricane season forecaster with the National Weather Service, noted.
The forecast comes after an eerily quiet Atlantic hurricane season last year. Storms veered away from the Atlantic coast due to an area of high pressure that was farther east. An aerial view from a drone shows people walking through a flooded street after Hurricane Sally hit Gulf Shores, Alabama, in September 2020. Last year was eerily quiet for Atlantic hurricanes making landfall in the U.S.
“The storms could sort of curve around the western side of the high towards Bermuda and then out into the Atlantic,” Dan DePodwin, AccuWeather's vice president of forecasting operations, told The Independent in November.
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