United States intelligence has warned of a planned Russian drone attack targeting France, Italy and Spain. The warning was revealed by El Mundo, which said the US shared the Kremlin’s plans for a major escalation involving drones launched from shipping containers in the Mediterranean.
Gerbera drones and CIA visit
Lithuanian authorities said the drones used would be Gerbera drones, which have a range of around 600km and can be launched easily. It is believed that CIA head John Ratcliffe’s recent visit to Moscow for ‘undisclosed talks’ was to warn the Kremlin against the plan.
The leaders of Spain, France and Italy were later tipped off about the potential drone attack, which would likely trigger a larger conflict.
Expert analysis
Chatham House Russia expert Keir Giles told Metro today: ‘If there continues to be no response to Russia pushing the boundaries with attacks and potential attacks on Europe, it makes the situation more and more dangerous.’
He added: ‘Here’s something we do know: Russia is not going to attack Europe in a way that would trigger a significant American response.’
The Kremlin sees Russia’s relationship with the United States, which strengthened during Donald Trump’s second term, as vital. It’s unlikely that Vladimir Putin would seek to launch an attack or provocation of such scale that it would turn America back into a major enemy.
Previous warnings and shadow fleet
The latest warning about the European drone attack is consistent with previous warnings from Russia about what it would do if Western nations continued to support Ukraine. Giles says that plans to launch weapons from Russian shadow fleet ships are not new – it’s something that was already on ‘the menu’ of options the Kremlin has.
‘This is the culmination of not just months, but years of Russia learning from its attacks on Europe and the response or lack of it, from European nations,’ Giles said.
Multiple reports have shown that Russia does not have the manpower to launch a full-scale conflict against a NATO nation until 2031 to 2033, but Giles warns that the ‘shifting time frames’ from these studies are not to be relied upon.
‘These timetables that are being worked out by Western media and in some cases, Western officials are not what is going to drive when Russia thinks it’s ready,’ he added.
In July, it was found that Russia had already been ‘waging a campaign of war’ against the UK by launching hundreds of drones and covert UAVs across Britain and Europe from their shadow fleet in preparation for a future conflict. The International Institute of Strategic Studies issued a sobering report in which they found Putin’s shadow fleet ships sent drones to target airports, bases and nuclear sites.
