An Israeli journalist has received threatening messages from users of the online prediction platform Polymarket after a routine report on a minor missile strike became the focus of a $23m bet on the Israel-Iran conflict.
Emanuel Fabian, a defence correspondent for the Times of Israel, reported on 10 March that a missile struck an open area near Jerusalem. No one was injured. Soon after, he was contacted by Polymarket users who demanded he change the story to say missile fragments hit the ground after an interception, rather than a direct strike.
Fabian declined, having checked the details with the military. The threats escalated, with one message saying: “After you make us lose $900,000 we will invest no less than that to finish you.” Another gave him 90 minutes to “update the lie” or face enemies willing to “pay anything to make your life miserable”.
Fabian eventually found the wager: whether Iran would strike Israel on 10 March, with a “strike” defined as a non-intercepted bomb or missile hitting Israeli soil. Those contacting him stood to win if no direct strike occurred.
“It all balanced on my inconsequential report,” Fabian said. He did not change the story, but one user contacted him more than 100 times overnight, trying to call him and threatening his family.
Polymarket, whose investors include a venture capital firm owned by Donald Trump Jr and the Intercontinental Exchange, has faced scrutiny over potential war profiteering and insider trading. Mark Roulston of Lancaster University warned that prediction markets could be manipulated, especially as their outcomes influence larger financial trades.
