John Oliver has taken aim at the rapidly growing world of prediction markets, calling them a 'grim' and poorly regulated free-for-all. On the latest episode of Last Week Tonight, the host examined platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, where users can bet on everything from geopolitical events to celebrity outcomes.
Oliver highlighted the unsettling nature of some bets, such as 'will Nancy Guthrie’s kidnapper be arrested by 28 February?' He argued that the impulse to profit from tragedy is 'really dark', adding: 'When someone dies, you’re supposed to send their family a card that says “sorry for your loss”, and not one that says “thanks for covering the spread!”'
The host noted that while prediction markets are not new, their recent explosion in popularity is due to aggressive marketing by Kalshi and Polymarket. These companies claim they are not gambling sites but 'financial exchanges' offering 'event contracts', allowing them to bypass gambling laws in some US states.
Oliver was particularly critical of the argument that such bets help people hedge against financial risks. He questioned what risk is being hedged when betting on the next winner of The Masked Singer or whether YouTuber Mr Beast will say a specific word. He played a clip of users celebrating bets on Donald Trump saying phrases like 'Sleepy Joe', calling it 'taking advantage of a sundowning geriatric’s rapidly declining verbal abilities'.
The host also pointed to the political implications, suggesting that the Trump administration's deregulatory stance has allowed these markets to flourish. He concluded that the industry's refusal to identify as gambling has enabled it to operate in a regulatory grey area, with billions of dollars now wagered weekly on often grim outcomes.
