Manchester City are the only team to have won all five of their opening Premier League matches this season, but history suggests a fast start does not guarantee title success. Data from Opta Analyst shows that only four of the 14 teams that have won their first five games of a Premier League season have gone on to lift the title.
City's strong start under new management
City have opened a three-point gap over champions Arsenal after five victories, having started life after Pep Guardiola in the best possible way on the pitch. They became the 15th different team to win their opening five games of a Premier League season, and it is the fourth occasion City have managed it. However, they have only won the title in one of the three previous seasons, in 2023-24, having failed to capitalise on their five early wins in 2015-16 and 2016-17.
The four teams that have won the title after a five-win start are Manchester City in 2023-24, Liverpool in 2019-20, and Chelsea in 2009-10 and 2005-06. All four extended their winning streak to start those seasons, with Chelsea in 2005-06 going on the longest winning run to start a Premier League season with nine wins, and Liverpool starting with eight wins in 2019-20.
Historical context and warning signs
Tottenham hold the record for the most consecutive wins to start a top-flight league season, winning their first 11 games in 1960-61 and going on to win the title. But a winning start does not guarantee success, as Manchester United found in 1985-86, when they collapsed to finish fourth despite winning their first 10 games.
City have benefited from an easy run of fixtures, according to the Opta Power Rankings, with their opponents having an average rating of 91.2, the second-easiest start this season. However, none of the previous seven clubs to start a Premier League season with exactly five wins have gone on to win the title, including Liverpool last season, who lost four in a row after their opening five wins.
Points benchmarks and title chances
The average points won by Premier League champions from the first five games across the previous 34 campaigns is 11.3, above Arsenal's total of 10 points last season. Arsenal have started this season better, winning 12 points from a possible 15, with their only loss a 3-0 defeat at Brighton.
No team has won a Premier League title in a 38-game season after winning fewer than eight points from their first five matches. Manchester United have won the league four times after winning exactly eight points from their opening five games, with City replicating that feat in 2020-21. The most astonishing turnaround by title winners was Sunderland in 1912-13, who failed to win any of their first seven games but went on to win the First Division title.
