South Africa remain the team to beat a year out from the 2027 Rugby World Cup in Australia, despite a defeat to Australia last weekend. The manner of their comeback after Rassie Erasmus emptied his bench was emphatic, and their series victory over New Zealand, coming from 1-0 down to win 3-1, underscores their status as the side to beat next year.
Many feel Erasmus needs to manage his ageing squad, but that was precisely what he was doing in Perth. Set-piece dominance and physicality remain the Springboks' hallmarks, and that is not going to change in the next 12 months. If they are to win a third World Cup in a row, they are likely to have to do it the hard way – on course for a quarter-final against New Zealand and a semi-final against France – but you would not bet against them at this point. An autumn that brings fixtures against France and Ireland should be fascinating, but when the Springboks are truly dialled in, they remain almost impossible to stop.
New Zealand and France close behind
New Zealand showed much to admire in their performances against South Africa, even while losing the series, highlighting how the All Blacks are the closest challengers to the Springboks' supremacy. Under Dave Rennie, they have gone back to what they are good at – playing at pace and showcasing handling skills that once made them the most feared nation. Richie Mo'unga has the chance to stake his claim for the No 10 jersey in forthcoming Tests against Australia with Ruben Love injured, while in Jordie Barrett and Quinn Tupaea, Rennie has a formidable centre partnership. In Ardie Savea, New Zealand boast the world's best player.
France, for the second time in successive summers, ran the All Blacks close in New Zealand with an understrength team, demonstrating the remarkable depth at Fabien Galthié's disposal. France are considered in many quarters the side most likely to trouble South Africa because they possess hulking forwards to match their stunning back division, led by the Pau duo of Fabien Brau-Boirie and Théo Attissogbe. A coaching overhaul has taken place and Galthié has added more size to his pack, with Emmanuel Meafou now among the first names on the teamsheet. The big question mark is tighthead prop, and Galthié must find an answer between now and the World Cup.
Ireland, Australia and Scotland in the chasing pack
Ireland are at the front of the second cluster of teams chasing the genuinely elite sides. The summer defeat by New Zealand demonstrated how much further they need to progress, and Ireland do not look as strong as they did at this point in the last World Cup cycle. The fly-half debate is not going away, and while strengthening depth in summer victories over Australia and Japan is a positive, selection becomes all the more difficult as a result. Sean Jansen came out of the summer series with his reputation firmly enhanced, adding to the back-row competition. Clearly some of Farrell's senior players are past their peak, but the manner in which Ireland stormed Twickenham this year demonstrates what experience can achieve.
Australia's win against the Springboks is to be celebrated regardless of caveats. It might have been a second-string South Africa, and the Wallabies might have been reduced to 11 men and clinging on for dear life at the end, but defeating the world champions will do wonders for the hosts' confidence. Strides were taken forward by Joe Schmidt, and Les Kiss – under whom Australia remain unbeaten – has picked up the mantle. In players such as Tom Wright, Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii and Fraser McReight, Australia boast some supremely gifted individuals, but they do not have the depth to cope with a spate of injuries.
Scotland were declared the third-best team in the world by Rassie Erasmus after giving South Africa a considerable scare over the summer. They are in a far better position than at the start of the year, when Gregor Townsend was under pressure after a difficult autumn, and clinched victories over England and France in the Six Nations. In the summer, they emphatically put Argentina to the sword, avoided an upset against Fiji, and in Sione Tuipulotu they can claim to have the world's finest inside-centre. A first victory over New Zealand in the autumn, followed by a rare triumph over Ireland in the Six Nations, would be the demonstrable progress needed to show Scotland can be a force in Australia.
England, Argentina and the rest
England are a good side, as demonstrated with their first-half performance against Argentina over the summer, and they have plenty of spirit, as shown in the second quarter against South Africa. The harsh reality, though, is that England are no closer to closing the gap on the genuinely elite sides than at the last World Cup. World rankings suggest they are on course for a quarter-final against Australia in Sydney, and that looks a daunting prospect. Steve Borthwick is yet to achieve a statement away win with England, and his last chance before next year's tournament comes in their Six Nations opener against Ireland. Immanuel Feyi-Waboso gives them an X-factor, and he must be fit and firing if England are to stand any chance.
Argentina are the most frustrating side in the Test game. Awful for 40 minutes against England, inspired for 20 – thanks in no small part to the magic of fly-half Tomas Albornoz – before throwing away the chance to sink Borthwick's side. The Pumas have played six matches this summer, won only one, but all of them have finished with a margin of 10 points or fewer. The scrum is a problem, but get that right and the last four can be in sight again next year. Japan won the Pacific Nations Cup earlier this month, and Eddie Jones has been showing his squad videos of geese flying together in formation to improve their support play. In Warner Dearns, Jones boasts a genuinely elite second row and is still calling on the experience of Michael Leitch, who will turn 39 during next year's tournament.
Wales have one or two green shoots of recovery under Steve Tandy, and a win against Fiji is not to be sniffed at, but Welsh rugby remains in a parlous state. They do have World Cup pedigree, however, and will have nothing to lose in what is likely to be a pool decider against England. Italy had a poor summer with hefty defeats by New Zealand and Australia followed by a demoralising loss to Japan, and they have a dreadful World Cup record – the only side to have played in all 11 editions and never reached the knockout stages. Fiji were desperate against England in Liverpool over the summer, and the response of the chairman John Sanday did little to suggest harmony. “We pay them well and they recently demanded more in this camp,” Sanday said. “We couldn't afford what they were asking for. But we then agreed on an increase in their daily allowance. It's business now. We need to perform and get wins.”
Among the best of the rest, Georgia, Tonga, Chile and Portugal are climbing up the rankings, but they are hamstrung by being shut out of the Nations Championship. A World Cup debut awaits for Hong Kong, who have been given the honour of appearing in the tournament opener against the hosts Australia. Zimbabwe's first appearance since the game went professional will be eye-catching, while Samoa are in a desperate place at present, having barely qualified, and the disbanding of Moana Pasifika has led to widespread fears of a talent drain to the NRL.
