The 2022 World Cup final was decided by a penalty shootout after Argentina and France were evenly matched at 3-3. Argentina won 4-2 on penalties, taking the title. Even outside shootouts, a single spot kick can decide a game, making any advantage crucial. So what does research say about the best penalty strategy?
Go First or Win the Toss
One of the best things a team can do is win the shootout coin toss. Research based on shootouts at major competitions between 1970 and 2003 shows the team taking the first penalty wins 60.5% of the time. After a 2003 rule change allowed the coin-toss winner to choose between going first or second, winning the toss became more beneficial: about 60% of teams that won the toss won the shootout, compared with a 51% win rate for teams that shot first.
Importance of a Good Run-Up
A 2020 study by Mikael Jamil and colleagues, published in the International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, analyzed over 1,700 penalties across four seasons (2015-16 to 2018-19) in England, Spain, Germany, and Italy. A long run-up (more than six steps) was associated with success in all four leagues. A medium run-up (two to five steps) was successful everywhere except Italy. Short run-ups were not a significant advantage anywhere.
Power vs. Placement
A 2002 study with a small sample suggests shots at about 75% of maximum power have the highest success rate. In Jamil's 2020 paper, placed shots (inside of the foot) were associated with success in Spain, Italy, and Germany, but only placement was significantly successful in England. Powerful shots (instep) were successful in Spain, Italy, and Germany but not in England. Panenka-style chips were not favoured or significantly successful anywhere.
Shot Position
A 2016 study by Carlos Almeida and co-authors, published in the International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, analyzed 536 spot kicks from the Champions League and Europa League. Shots towards the upper section of the goal are harder to save but more likely to miss. Players often prefer low shots to stay on target. A 2009 paper analyzing 311 penalties from various leagues found shots down the middle were less likely to be saved than corner shots. Premier League stats from Opta show success rates: low left 77.2%, low right 80%, high down the middle 97.8%, low middle 80.2%. Jamil's 2020 paper found shooting towards the middle was successful in the Premier League, while bottom corners were successful in other leagues.
Goalkeeper Behaviour
Goalkeepers rarely wait and react; they guess based on body language and past penalties. Several papers note goalkeepers almost always dive left or right, even though 20-30% of shots go down the middle. Researchers suggest a bias towards action: goalkeepers prefer to dive actively rather than stay central and see a ball go into the corner. Exceptions include Andrew Redmayne predicting a Panenka in the 2019 A-League Men grand final, and Édouard Mendy doing the same in the 2022 Africa Cup of Nations final.
Unpredictability
Despite stats suggesting goalkeepers rarely stay in the middle, game theory applies. Goalkeepers study opponents' habits, so if everyone shot centrally more often, goalkeepers would adapt. Researchers argue the best strategy is to be unpredictable and regularly change approach.
This is an updated version of an article originally published in 2023.
