The Welsh Rugby Union's stated ambition remains to cut the number of professional teams from four to three, but that does not necessarily mean the decision is set in stone, with several factors potentially capable of shifting the debate in the months ahead.
Chief among them is the arrival of Lyndon Faulkner as WRU chairman. His position may differ from that of his predecessor, Richard Collier-Keywood, and there remains the possibility that he will attempt to convince the board that a different solution is in the best interests of the game.
This week the WRU also told the Professional Rugby Board they are exploring the possibility of two Welsh clubs playing in the Gallagher Prem.
Sticking to the current plan
The WRU has faced sustained criticism over its decision to cut one of Wales' four professional teams, as well as the protracted process that has unfolded over the past 18 months. Despite the backlash from supporters, former players and politicians, the board has shown little indication that it intends to retreat from its position. Directors voted unanimously in favour of reducing the number of teams, and for now the plan remains firmly in place.
Under the proposed structure, one professional licence would be awarded in the east, one in the central region and one in the west, with the Dragons and Cardiff understood to have first refusal on the eastern and central licences respectively. That leaves the Ospreys and Scarlets competing for the sole western licence, unless they can find common ground on a merger; a prospect that currently appears remote.
The Keystone Report, published last month, set out the WRU's rationale for the proposed geographical split, with factors including population, existing infrastructure and the strength of the player pathway all featuring prominently in its assessment.
Exploring a move to England
At a special meeting of the Professional Rugby Board last Wednesday, the WRU informed representatives of Wales' four professional clubs that it had made enquiries about the possibility of leaving the United Rugby Championship for the Gallagher Prem. A subsequent statement from Premiership Rugby Limited and the Rugby Football Union appeared to pour cold water on Wales' hopes, at least publicly. However, discussions between senior figures in Welsh and English rugby about the prospect of admitting two Welsh clubs into the Prem have been taking place for some time.
There would be considerable obstacles to overcome. The first would be securing an exit from the URC, which is unlikely to be straightforward. Former WRU chair Collier-Keywood previously described the competition's participation agreement as a "forever contract". Gaining admission to the Prem would present another significant challenge. Any expansion would require RFU approval, while there would also be the potentially difficult task of winning over clubs in the Championship, who would inevitably have concerns about the introduction of two Welsh sides.
There is, however, support for the idea among influential figures in English rugby. Bath co-owner Bruce Craig, Exeter Chiefs chairman Tony Rowe and Gloucester owner Martin St Quinton have all expressed an interest in the prospect of Welsh clubs joining the competition in media interviews over the past six months.
The radical option: cutting to two teams
The WRU has recently posted losses of £18m, which is more than double the £7.2m deficit recorded 12 months earlier. The stark figures lay bare the scale of the financial challenge facing the game in Wales, with the WRU's latest accounts exposing a sharp deterioration in the governing body's finances. This came despite the WRU's turnover rising £10m to £116.2m, while EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation, and before rugby allocations and exceptional costs) fell from £32.8m to £19.7m.
The financial figures make for deeply concerning reading. On the basis of the current numbers, it is difficult to see how the WRU can comfortably fund three professional teams, never mind four, while also honouring its commitment to invest £28m in the player pathway over the next five years.
There is also the long-standing argument that concentrating talent and resources into two teams may be the only realistic way for Welsh rugby to compete for silverware consistently again, particularly given the financial muscle of many of its rivals. But such a move would inevitably alienate significant sections of the Welsh rugby public. It also raises a fundamental question about where the balance should lie between creating two genuinely competitive sides and ensuring there are sufficient opportunities for players to develop and progress.
Retaining the status quo
For many supporters, the preferred outcome is straightforward. The WRU abandons its plans to cut a professional team and finds a way to retain the existing four. In an ideal scenario, all four clubs would remain in place and receive sufficient funding to compete successfully, while the union continued to invest in the development pathway.
The WRU, however, insists there is no realistic prospect of generating enough additional revenue to sustain four competitive sides while meeting its wider financial commitments. Perhaps new chair Faulkner can change that equation. The Coalition of the Willing certainly believe there are alternative ways of generating the money required to make four teams viable, although whether those proposals can deliver remains to be seen.
The governing body is also facing mounting political pressure, alongside significant legal challenges to its plans to reduce the professional game to three teams. Ultimately, though, the debate comes back to finances. Unless a credible alternative funding model can be found, it is difficult to see how retaining all four teams can become a realistic option especially in the URC.
