Steve Tandy has a 12-month deadline to address Wales' long-standing lack of squad experience, with the national team likely to arrive at next year's World Cup with key areas short on caps.
After naming his 39-man squad for the autumn internationals on Tuesday, the Wales head coach acknowledged the scrutiny that comes with selection decisions. "There'll be people out there challenging me on selections," said Tandy. "No-one really says who they would leave out either, it's always the people that should be in! It's something that comes with the territory."
When Tandy took the job last year, the Welsh Rugby Union stressed the need to increase experience in the squad, pointing to low cap numbers and cohesion at the time. Despite that, the current squad still lacks a great deal of experience, and Tandy is balancing the need to build cohesion with keeping an eye on potential new faces.
Balancing Experience and Potential
"I'd never give out an opportunity, they've got to earn it, and I think I am pretty clear on the core of our group," said Tandy. "But this is another opportunity to see someone else in our environment and see what comes out of it."
"We want to build cohesion and consistency around the cap numbers, but also I think we have to look at potential," he added. "And if we think that potential is going to elevate our performance, then I'm open to doing that."
Tandy acknowledged the particular challenge in the backline: "I agree that probably, in particular, our backline is where you want to create cohesion and probably get to 20 or 30 caps as quickly as you can, but also still making sure the performance is there. So it's a fine balancing act."
"In particular, with our backline, there is not a massive amount of caps, so we've got to nurture that, we have to be patient," he continued. "And again, I don't think it's about chopping and changing everything, because I feel we've got so much potential in an already young group in certain departments. So it's balancing that off, but also we've got to be brave enough if we think there's talent that can add value to it, then we've got to have the ability to do that."
Current Squad Profile
So far, Tandy has officially called up 68 players, using 54 to date in Test matches. By the end of the autumn, that could rise to 59, with Seb Davies, Taine Basham, Rhys Barratt, Che Hope and Aneurin Owen yet to feature in a Test under the Wales head coach.
Of those 68 players, just nine have more than 50 caps, while the vast majority have less than 20 caps at this point. Wales are either playing 12 or 13 games in the next year, depending on whether it's three or four World Cup warm-ups. Even allowing for that, Wales are still lacking depth in certain areas.
Based on the players who have been in and around the Wales squad in the past year or so, as well as those namechecked as future call-ups by coaches, the Test profile of Wales' options for Australia could still show a worrying lack of players around the 30-50 cap mark next year.
Position-by-Position Concerns
In the back-three, Tandy acknowledged that there isn't a great deal of experience beyond Tomos Williams and Josh Adams. Adams has 72 caps, while the next highest in the back-three regulars is Louis Rees-Zammit with 42. Other regulars like Blair Murray, Ellis Mee and Tom Rogers still have less than 20 caps, and Rio Dyer with 24 caps had been in the Test wilderness for a year.
In the centre, Wales are moving away from established experience, with either Joe Hawkins or Ben Thomas likely to wear the 12 jersey Down Under next year. There had been a suggestion that, had Louie Hennessey not been injured in the summer, Tandy might have looked at an Eddie James-Hennessey midfield, but the smart money seems on a ball-playing 12 moving forward.
At fly-half, Sam Costelow is now the most experienced option, with Dan Edwards vying for the spot. Wales would probably give for an older head to act as a mentor, but they simply don't exist. At scrum-half, Tomos Williams has started pretty much every match he's been available in, but with his injury, Wales desperately need to blood more options.
In the forwards, loosehead prop has three solid options in Nicky Smith, Rhys Carre and Gareth Thomas, while hooker is not a problem position with Dewi Lake as captain. Tighthead prop remains a problem position, with Wales turning back to Tomas Francis and Dillon Lewis in the last year. Second-row has a fairly healthy spread, and the back-row is the most competitive area, with the likes of Taulupe Faletau and Aaron Wainwright providing experience.
With the World Cup a year away, Tandy's task is clear: find a way to fast-track experience into a young squad without sacrificing performance, and ensure Wales are not one injury away from disaster in key positions.
