Newcastle United have made a positive start under head coach Matthias Jaissle, but Sky Sports pundit Don Goodman believes the underlying statistics suggest it is unsustainable.
Goodman was on co-commentary duties during the Magpies' 4-1 defeat to Leeds United at Elland Road last month. Up until that point, Jaissle had made an unbeaten start as Newcastle boss, and it remains their only loss in all competitions this season after they bounced back to beat Hull City 2-1 in their final match before the international break.
Points and upcoming fixtures
Newcastle have picked up eight points from their opening five Premier League matches, heading into this weekend's fixtures in ninth place. They travel to newly promoted Coventry City on Monday, followed by home games against Aston Villa and Everton, and trips to Crystal Palace and Fulham. With no matches against the 'big six' before the November international break, they have an opportunity to strengthen their position.
The team is also in the fourth round of the Carabao Cup after wins over West Brom and Millwall. This follows a summer of change that saw key players leave, Eddie Howe step down as manager, and eight young new signings arrive.
Underlying concerns
Goodman pointed out that Newcastle have the biggest xG overperformance of any team in Europe's top five leagues, while goalkeeper Lukas Hornicek has made the second most saves in the Premier League. He feels this is unsustainable if Jaissle wants to maintain their current position.
"Up until the Leeds United game, which I covered, Newcastle’s start had been satisfactory despite major changes in management and squad," Goodman told BetVictor. "But that night exposed issues. Before that game, they had conceded the most shots in the Premier League while boasting an unsustainable 18 per cent conversion rate, scoring six goals from a combined xG of just 0.8."
"At Elland Road under the lights, you have to be physically and mentally strong, and they were completely outplayed. It left me with big questions about their physicality."
Having beaten Hull City, Goodman noted that fixtures against Coventry, Aston Villa, Fulham, Palace, and Everton offer a chance to rebound. "These next five games will be crucial for the young head coach and his squad."
