England are facing the hardest ever run to win the World Cup, based on FIFA rankings. After topping Group L, the Three Lions have reached the round of 32 and will face DR Congo in Atlanta on Wednesday. This marks the next step on a journey that could see Thomas Tuchel's side finally end 60 years of hurt and become the first England men's team to win a trophy on foreign soil.
Favourable Opponents but Tough Path Ahead
Having finished third in their group, DR Congo are seen as favourable opponents at this stage. England have also managed to avoid being on the same side of the draw as European rivals Spain, France, Portugal, Germany, the Netherlands and Belgium. However, data suggests that there's nothing favourable about it compared to winners of the past.
Should each of the highest-ranked teams progress on England's half of the draw, Harry Kane and Co. would come up against co-hosts Mexico in the round of 16, five-time winners Brazil in the quarter-finals, holders Argentina in the semi-finals, and finally Spain, who beat England in the final of Euro 2024.
Projected Run Sets Record Difficulty
Taking out DR Congo in the newly-added round of 32, England's opponents on their projected run to the final would have an average FIFA ranking of 5.75 — the most difficult average ever recorded. And that's without the context of facing Mexico at the iconic Estadio Azteca in Mexico City. With DR Congo included, the average ranking rises to 13.8.
Currently, France's triumph at the 2006 edition is the toughest run based on FIFA's rankings. They faced opposition averaging 6.5 — Spain, Brazil, Portugal and Italy. In second place, the Brazil side of 1994 faced opponents averaging 9.75 — USA, the Netherlands, Sweden and Italy. Thirdly, Spain in 2010 faced opponents averaging 11 — Portugal, Paraguay, Germany and the Netherlands.
Upsets Could Change the Picture
Of course, upsets are almost guaranteed in the knockout stages of a World Cup, so England may end up facing lower-ranked sides than projected. That won't necessarily make it easier, though, as the Three Lions could be the next giant to fall.
DR Congo and Newcastle striker Yoane Wissa said after beating Uzbekistan 3-1: "A big beast is waiting for us. We need to enjoy this kind of game. We deserve to play against England, one of the best in the world. I'm looking forward to what's coming next."
England Confident Against African Nations
England will be confident of taking DR Congo down and extending their unbeaten run against African nations at the World Cup to 10 games. Sebastien Desabre's men started their campaign with a well-earned 1-1 draw with Portugal, having come from behind. Their next game was a narrow 1-0 loss to Group K winners Colombia, setting up a must-win clash with World Cup debutants Uzbekistan. After conceding early, Wissa's brace and a goal from Fiston Mayele secured all three points for the Leopards.
