Premier League clubs are not expecting Manchester City to be playing in the top flight next season as they await punishment after being found guilty of breaching Financial Fair Play (FFP) rules. City were found guilty on 114 charges levelled against them over a nine-year period, with an independent commission ruling that they had used 'sham' contracts to disguise more than £830million in funding.
City have consistently denied any wrongdoing and have launched an appeal against the verdict, but it has not stopped speculation and reports about possible sanctions facing the club. The likes of Newcastle United and Sunderland watch on with interest.
Sky Sports reports that City's rivals are not expecting Enzo Maresca's team to be playing in the Premier League next season due to the weight of the charges and the fact they run over the course of nine seasons. The report adds: "Many believe that a points deduction is not a sufficient punishment if it would lead to City spending just one season outside the top flight."
Possible sanctions for City
The consensus appears to be that rules have to be respected by all clubs, no matter their size or status - and it would not be sufficient to hand City a punishment that would last only one season for rules which were broken across multiple seasons.
City could face a hefty points deduction which would lead to inevitable relegation, or they could be expelled from the top flight. Some clubs argue the Premier League is better with City in it, but that is countered by claims its reputation will be damaged globally without them.
City maintain that they have 'irrefutable evidence' proving the deals in question were legitimate and funded by the Abu Dhabi government rather than the club's owners, the Abu Dhabi United Group. The Premier League permits state-owned entities to sponsor clubs, an argument that could form part of City's appeal.
Expulsion and other penalties
The independent commission concluded more than £830m of owner funding was used to inflate revenues and enable the club to comply with Premier League and UEFA financial rules through a series of "sham" arrangements.
One potential punishment is expulsion from the Premier League. There is a desire among leading figures at some clubs to see City thrown out of the top flight, which would require them to apply for sanctuary in the EFL. The Premier League would need 15 clubs to vote in favour of expulsion.
Some reports claim clubs don't even want City admitted to the EFL, however it would be extremely attractive for the Football League to have a club of their size and profile. TV revenues and audiences would be given a boost as would the teams playing against them.
Transfer embargoes, points deductions and fines are also possibilities. There has even been talk of a potential 200-point deduction applied over several seasons. There is a concern among some clubs and boardrooms that sanctions on City could lead to the revival of a European Super League.
Pundit predictions
Jamie Carragher believes any possible punishment against Man City 'should go on for years and years'. The former Liverpool defender also doesn't want a long, drawn out wait for the sanctions, insisting they must come into force this season.
"Now that we know that they're guilty, yes, there's an appeal, but now that they've got a big guilty verdict initially, now I don't think anybody wants to wait," Carragher said. "It has to be done this season, because Man City need to be affected for next season. I know the word at the moment is sham; it'll almost make the Premier League of this season, the title to be won would be a sham, if Man City went on to win that league with what we know has gone on. So it has to be done this season, and I think the punishment, whatever it should be, I don't think it can be a one-off punishment for one season, because this has gone on for years and years, so I think the punishment should go on for years and years."
Football finance expert Kieran Maguire believes City could be hit with a massive fine and a 60-point penalty. "As far as the outcome is concerned, I think we've got to look at precedent," Maguire told talkSPORT. "Chelsea were given significant fines from both the Football Association and from the Premier League for around £20m over their financial misdemeanours, not registering payments to unauthorised agents and so on. So you would expect that to be quite significant. Also, it was noticeable in the Chelsea claim that the club agreed to pay the Premier League legal costs, which were quite substantial. These are going to be far bigger. So we're probably talking about £50m-£60m in all probability, plus a substantial fine."
"Then, of course, we've got the precedent of Nottingham Forest, Everton, and Leicester City, all of whom breached the PSR limits and were given points deductions. Given that the Man City offences took place over a longer period of time, therefore it's multiple offences over multiple years, you would expect a multiple of the points deductions that we've seen. We don't know by how much Man City exceeded the PSR limits, and we're now working on the basis of reading some of the former reports that it works out as a three-point deduction to kick off with, plus one extra point per extra £6.5m over the limit. So that will form a rough basis. And then there's a further issue, have you assisted with the investigation? We'll suggest they probably haven't. So that's called an aggregating factor, and the panel could subsequently give an additional points deduction on top of that. If all of those are proven post-appeal, my gut reaction is we would be looking for somewhere in the region of perhaps 50 to 60 points. If it's more than 70 points, they're effectively relegated."
