The 2026 NRL grand final pits the Sydney Roosters against the Newcastle Knights at Accor Stadium on Sunday. The Roosters are hot favourites to win a 16th premiership, but Newcastle, coming off a wooden spoon last year, are riding a wave of form and belief.
Paths to the grand final
The Roosters compiled a 16-8 win-loss record to finish fourth. In the final round, they were thrashed 20-50 by South Sydney, and no side has won the NRL title after such a belting. They dropped their first final to Penrith 12-19 before rebounding to beat the Sharks 46-10 and then flogged the Dolphins 36-20 at Suncorp in the preliminary final.
Newcastle finished with a 14-10 win-loss ledger and scraped into the finals in seventh spot. No team has won the title from there before, but the Knights beat the Rabbitohs 20-10 at Allianz, upset the Warriors 12-10 at Eden Park, and then defended with 12 men for 44 minutes to beat the Panthers 22-14 in the preliminary final.
Form guide and head-to-head
The emotion of three consecutive boilovers in enemy territory may have drained the Knights, but their form and belief – and the support of the 70,000 Novacastrians expected at Accor Stadium – could build them into an unstoppable force. The Roosters have cruised into the decider and had an extra day's rest. It is their 13th finals campaign in Trent Robinson's 14 years in charge.
The Roosters have beaten the Knights in their last six contests and 20 of the past 23. In April, the Roosters won 38-24 despite being 12-24 down at half-time, with a five-try second-half blitz led by a double to Mark Nawaqanitawase. In July, the teams were four tries apiece before Daly Cherry-Evans potted a field goal in the 77th minute to win 23-22.
The Knights won just six games in 2025 and collected the wooden spoon. This year, under Justin Holbrook, Newcastle average 25 points scored and 23 leaked, with captain Kalyn Ponga in the form of his life.
The gamechangers
Cherry-Evans won a premiership in his rookie season with Manly in 2011, but last year dumped the Sea Eagles for the Roosters to chase another title a record 15 seasons after his first. This will be the 37-year-old's final NRL game before shipping out to Hull. He will be hoping to echo the feats of Cooper Cronk, who led the Roosters to glory in 2018-19.
In just 46 appearances, Nawaqanitawase has scored 45 tries. This is his last NRL game before rejoining rugby union. Knights flyer Dominic Young, an equally brilliant aerial exponent and try-scorer, has the talent to steal his thunder.
Ponga, the nine-season Knights talisman, averages 17 runs a game and has forged a chemistry with maverick playmaker Fletcher Sharpe, a local product who was not even born the last time Newcastle won a premiership. Ponga's guile at fullback is matched by his opposite number and fellow captain James Tedesco, a 33-year-old who averages 19 charges per game. Both will be hunted early by the hit men on both sides – Victor Radley and Lindsay Collins for the Roosters, Tyson Frizell and Cody Hopwood for the Knights.
The Knights will be missing Phoenix Crossland, suspended for his hip-drop tackle on 2026 Dally M winner Nathan Cleary last week, and also marquee man Dylan Brown. The Roosters are full-strength, having welcomed back Sam Walker from injury last week. His battle with Knights pocket rocket Sandon Smith – a Roosters reject turned Newcastle hero – is a flyweight bout with heavyweight consequences.
Prediction
Grand finals are personal. The Roosters have the class and composure of a team built around big-name players with grand final experience. It should be enough to win easily. But Newcastle is a coal-town team that burns brightest when running on fumes. No side in 92 years has traded a wooden spoon for the trophy the next year, but this squad is feral and fearless enough to do it. It is the Roosters' party but the Knights are primed to crash it.
