Cheltenham Champion Hurdle: A Wide-Open Betting Puzzle with Trust Issues
Just after Valentine's Day, trust issues are not ideal, but in the world of horse racing, punters are seeking a reliable contender for the Champion Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival in under a month. Many observers have noted this year's renewal appears challenging, yet it creates an intriguing betting opportunity. Finding the winner amidst a field full of doubts offers significant internal satisfaction, especially with the field priced at 5-2.
The Favourites: Speed vs. Cheltenham Form
Brighterdaysahead, who won the Irish Champion Hurdle two weeks ago, leads the market but raises concerns due to her past performances at Cheltenham. Trainer Gordon Elliott has offered excuses for her disappointments in the Mares Novices' Hurdle and last year's Champion Hurdle, suggesting issues like slow pacing or a knee injury. However, it's plausible she simply dislikes the track, making her a risky bet despite her speed.
The New Lion, disputing favouritism, faces doubts about his speed over two miles. His victory in the Turners Novices' Hurdle over a longer distance indicates he might be better suited to three miles. On Trials Day, he won a slowly-run race but showed weaknesses in jumping at speed, losing ground to inferior rivals. In an open year, he remains a contender but has clear deficiencies.
Other Contenders: Injuries and Uncertainties
State Man, a major contender last year, fell at the last hurdle and was ruled out with an injury, while his owners' deputy, Sir Gino, suffered a fractured pelvis and is out for the season. Constitution Hill, third in the market at 11-2, has fallen in three of his last four races, with trainer Nicky Henderson non-committal about his Champion Hurdle participation due to jumping issues. His upcoming prep run at Southwell is unlikely to resolve these trust concerns.
Lossiemouth, at 6-1, could be a strong contender but is more likely to run in the Mares' Hurdle again, following a below-par effort against Brighterdaysahead. Defending champion Golden Ace, reliable but perhaps not good enough to repeat her success, is priced at 7-1. Last year's Triumph Hurdle winner Poniros, at 16-1, needs significant improvement, and Anzadam, at 20-1, has outside place claims at best.
Conclusion: Weighing the Pros and Cons
This Champion Hurdle is wide open, with each horse having pros and cons. Punters must decide who to trust most: Brighterdaysahead with her Cheltenham concerns, The New Lion with his speed doubts, or others like Constitution Hill with deeper issues. The race promises excitement but requires careful analysis in a field where confidence is hard to find.
