Well, at least we are getting them out of the way early this time. If you had the choice to pick any team for England to face in their World Cup opener, Croatia probably would not have been anywhere near the top of your list.
The pundits are piling the pressure on England to kick off in style. Your mate Dave reckons it will be a nervy 1-0 decided by a set-piece. And anyone with eyes can tell you 40-year-old Luka Modric still has one last moment of magic left in him.
We consulted Machine Football's data analysis model to come up with four selections, one combined price, and a data-driven case for each.
All odds correct as of 14:30 BST on Tuesday 16th June, 2026.
Leg 1 — England to Win (8/13) and Both Teams to Score (21/20)
Croatia are no mugs — they are ranked 11th in the world and have stayed near the top pretty consistently for a while now — but let us back England to get the job done.
Harry Kane averaged 3.65 shots per 90 for Bayern Munich last season and managed a chunky 4.70 in the warm-up clashes against New Zealand and Costa Rica earlier this month.
Jude Bellingham has never been shy about a box-crashing run himself, while Marcus Rashford's Catalonian adventure saw him average 3.16 shots per 90 as he helped Barcelona to the LaLiga title.
Modric is as evergreen as ever and scored in Croatia's most recent game against Slovenia, while his side remain dangerous on the counter-attack as shown against France in the Nations League.
Verdict: Expect both sides to score but England to edge it for the win.
Leg 2 — Harry Kane Anytime Goalscorer (5/4)
Kane scored 60 goals last season and ranks in the top 1% globally for both finishing and attacking contribution according to the Machine Football model, which also ranks the Three Lions talisman among the Bundesliga's elite for attacking positioning.
As England captain, and with what could be his final World Cup campaign underway, Kane will be more driven than ever to contribute to everything England do in the final third.
Croatia's centre-backs face a daunting task. Josko Sutalo picked up just one yellow card in 24 Eredivisie appearances this season, but his partner Luka Vuskovic is still only 19 and committed 30 fouls in 28 Bundesliga appearances while on loan at Hamburg.
Verdict: Neither will be comfortable facing a striker of Kane's calibre. The main man will back himself to find the net.
Leg 3 — England 4.5+ Corners (9/20)
Tuchel has openly made set-pieces a priority — and his decision to pick John Stones tells you exactly how seriously he is taking dead balls.
Stones could start ahead of the previously-untouchable Marc Guehi, if Tuchel's line-up against Costa Rica was anything to go by. Machine Football ranks Stones in the top 1% globally for heading ability, while Guehi sits in just the 48th percentile for defensive headers among centre-backs.
That is not a like-for-like swap — it is a set-piece upgrade.
Rashford took Barcelona's corners when he played last season — 4.31 per game in La Liga — while Rice is another designated specialist, averaging 4.51 corners per 90 during England's World Cup qualifying campaign.
Verdict: If Croatia drop into a low block, there should be plenty of opportunities for England to force set pieces. Five England corners is not bold. It is almost inevitable.
Leg 4 — Elliot Anderson to Be Booked (4/1)
Eight yellows, 55 fouls, 38 Premier League games. Elliot Anderson's aggression is one of his strongest attributes, so it is no coincidence the Geordie was Nottingham Forest's most frequently booked Premier League player last season.
On Wednesday, he will be up against the silky likes of Luka Modric and the lesser-known Martin Baturina. Baturina won 42 fouls in 29 Serie A appearances this season for possession-heavy Como, so he is plenty experienced at using his body to win fouls and relieve the pressure.
Verdict: With Anderson tasked with disrupting Croatia's creators, a booking looks a very real possibility.
The Bet Builder Combined Price: 50.58/1
Stack all four legs on Betfair's Bet Builder and you are looking at around 50-1. Five suggestions in four legs, all backed by data.
Always check the exchange for live prices before placing.
Gamble responsibly. 18+ | UK only | begambleaware.org. Prices are approximate and subject to change.
Predicted Starting XIs
England (4-2-3-1): Pickford, James, Konsa, Stones, O'Reilly, Rice, Anderson, Saka, Bellingham, Gordon; Kane.
Croatia (3-4-2-1): Livakovic, Sutalo, Vuskovic, Gvardiol, Stanisic, Modric, Kovacic, Perisic, Sucic, Baturina; Musa.
