Scotland's hopes of reaching the World Cup knockout stages for the first time are all but over after a disastrous 24 hours saw their qualification chances plummet. Steve Clarke's side began the day with Opta giving them a 42% chance of progressing, but that figure has now crashed to just over 5% following a series of results that went against them.
Heavy Defeat to Brazil Proves Costly
Scotland's own 3-0 defeat to Brazil in their final Group Stage match proved hugely damaging. Not only did they finish with just three points – when four would almost certainly have been enough to qualify – but the heavy loss left them with a goal difference of minus three. That goal difference could now prove decisive.
The expanded World Cup sees the eight best third-placed teams advance to the last 32, but Scotland have slipped to eighth in the current rankings and are rapidly running out of favourable outcomes. Their situation worsened as South Korea dropped into third place after South Africa secured a 1-0 victory to finish in the top two of their group. South Korea's superior goal difference means they sit above Scotland.
Other Results Deal Further Blows
There was another major blow when Ecuador stunned Germany 2-1 to finish third with four points and automatically secure qualification, before Sweden also booked a place in the knockout stages after drawing 1-1 with Japan to finish on four points. Paraguay's draw with Australia overnight then pushed Scotland's qualification chances down even further, leaving Clarke's side needing several unlikely results over the next two days.
What Do Scotland Need to Qualify?
Scotland now need at least four third-placed teams to finish with a worse record than them. With goal difference acting as the first tiebreaker for teams level on points, Scotland's minus-three tally leaves them needing several results to fall perfectly. Several of the teams Scotland are relying on still have one group match remaining, meaning their fate is now completely out of their own hands.
Scotland now need at least four of the following results to go their way:
Friday
- Group I: Senegal and Iraq draw, or Iraq beat Senegal by no more than two goals.
- Group H: Uruguay lose to Spain.
- Group G: Iran lose to Egypt.
Saturday
- Group L: Croatia lose to Ghana by three goals or more.
- Group K: DR Congo and Uzbekistan draw, or Uzbekistan win by no more than three goals.
- Group J: Algeria lose to Austria by two or more goals, or Austria are beaten by at least four goals.
