Dame Meg Hillier, chair of the Treasury Committee, has said the upcoming Budget will not fix social care or defence funding overnight, but the detailed numbers behind it will give clues to what lies ahead.
Writing for the Mirror, she acknowledged the Prime Minister's long-term ambitions, including growth in every postcode, job opportunities for young people, breathing space for businesses, and a pathway to increase defence funding. However, she noted he inherits challenges similar to those faced by the Labour Government in 2024 – public finances drained and big issues parked.
Inherited challenges
Hillier pointed out that, thanks to the last Conservative Government, around 700,000 pupils are studying in schools that are not fit for purpose. Hospitals are in need of investment in crumbling buildings, with some containing reinforced aerated concrete and literally having roofs propped up. She also highlighted an increase of £33bn of taxpayers' money spent on benefits in the last year of the Tory Government.
Labour inherited crumbling buildings, struggling public services, and households under pressure, she wrote, adding that these cannot be solved in short order.
Wary of Budget surprises
Hillier said she is wary of surprise announcements on Budget day that often unravel, describing policies cooked up in Whitehall that don't survive contact with the real world. She acknowledged that while the PM is rightly focused on the long term, the Chancellor has the immediate challenge of managing the money today.
She noted that secrecy around a Budget is a challenge, as some decisions could be damaging if leaked before Budget day. However, the danger is that the Treasury can become a bunker, and to avoid leaks, ideas are not tested. She referenced the infamous pasty tax as an example. She also said John Healey has promised to clamp down on leaks and speculation and has so far succeeded, with even the content of private meetings with stakeholders remaining private.
Clues to the path ahead
Hillier wrote that much of the Prime Minister's agenda is about tackling long-neglected big challenges, most notably social care and funding defence in an increasingly dangerous world. The Budget is not the vehicle for solving these, but the detailed numbers behind it will give clues to what's ahead. The detail of future public spending will not be laid out until the spending review next spring.
Only the Chancellor and his inner circle know what will be in the Budget, which is all but finalised. Hillier said that when leading economists appeared before the Treasury committee this week, they were positive about the direction of travel as they perceived it – cautious not flashy – and called for a focus on the long term, investment, and giving responsibility to local areas for their own decisions and delivery.
Football tax questions
In a separate piece, Hillier addressed the Premier League's investigation into Manchester City, which prompted serious questions about the club's tax affairs. She wrote that football clubs, like every other taxpayer, should pay their fair share, so she wrote to HMRC to make clear that they expect the tax authority to be alive to tax impropriety in football.
She said HMRC has told them they are on the ball, but the committee will be keeping a close eye on them and are likely to question HMRC on that subject the next time they appear in front of them. She added she hopes for their sake that they come away with a clean sheet.
Trust and disability awareness
Hillier also referenced the BBC's Celebrity Traitors, saying it is a reminder that trust is everything, even when division is rife. She said politics is not about outwitting opponents but about working together to deliver for people.
Finally, she noted the untimely death of Breaking Bad actor RJ Mitte, who had cerebral palsy, reminding her of the work of Graeae and Access All Areas, theatre companies championing deaf, disabled, neurodivergent and learning disability performers. She said all disabled actors should be able to access taxpayer funded Access to Work support, and the arts and society will be better for it.
