Starmer's Downfall: A Question of When
Out of curiosity, I took a bit of time to look up the earliest example of the phrase 'a question of when, not if' being used in relation to Sir Keir Starmer's downfall as Prime Minister. I managed to find a quote along those lines from an anonymous Labour MP in the i paper a little over 10 months ago. According to my maths, that's just over two fifths of Starmer's premiership in which it's been 'a question of when'. The question, of course, has now been answered: 9.30am on June 22, 2026. This suggests a premiership that was never destined to succeed. In the past few decades, only Liz Truss has entered terminal decline more quickly – a fact that should send a chill down Starmer's spine.
A few political obituaries have been published in recent days, pointing towards flaws in the PM that should always have been obvious. Warning signs like his lack of interest in cold, hard politics; the vagueness of his plans for government; his indecision; his lawyerly approach. But very few people predicted back in summer 2024 just how short-lived his tenure would be.
Burnham's Rise: Extraordinary but Questionable
So, with that in mind, should we be able to predict how heir apparent Andy Burnham will perform? Are there any red flags that are being overshadowed by the mythic heft of the so-called King of the North? With all the monthslong buzz around him, it's easy to forget just how extraordinary his appointment (likely in just over three weeks) will be. Burnham will become the first PM in more than 60 years who was not voted in at the previous general election. If no leadership contest takes place, he will have gone from his mayoral office in Manchester's Tootal Buildings to No 10 Downing Street in less than one month.
Yes, so he spent the first 17 years of this century as an MP, but there have been three general elections since he left. If Starmer's plans for government were vague after years in opposition, how much better could Burnham's be?
Red Flags: Clean Air Zone and Rough Sleeping
Then, there's all the stuff he got up to in his time as Mayor of Greater Manchester. Much of that work can be praised, but there are a few examples that might set Labour nerves jangling. Take the Clean Air Zone (CAZ), Manchester's answer to London's Ultra-Low Emission Zone which aimed to charge drivers of higher-polluting vehicles. Burnham ended up scrapping the unpopular plan when it was already some distance towards being implemented. By contrast, Mayor of London Sadiq Khan pressed ahead in the face of strong opposition – and today, he can point to a 40% fall in toxic air-related deaths in the capital. Critics suggest Burnham likes to be liked, and may struggle with taking decisions that risk blowback. That could be an issue when he needs to confront tricky issues like tackling the welfare bill and funding defence.
Then there's the promise to end rough sleeping by 2020, made in his first campaign for Mayor. As the Financial Times reports, decent progress was made up until Covid. But the Mayor's office simply didn't have the powers it needed to fully deliver on the pledge and, when focus was lost, rough sleeping numbers in Manchester climbed back up to the level they were at when it was originally made.
Conclusion: Potential and Pitfalls
None of this means Andy Burnham is doomed for failure at No 10. He possesses many of the qualities Starmer lacks – charisma, political zeal, ambition in approach – in spades. But he's got plenty of expectations on his shoulders, and therefore a lot to prove. For those with a lack of patience, fear not – it'll be an extraordinary short wait to find out how he's going to get on.
