European drivers could face an extra €220 (£190) per year at the pumps due to rising oil prices linked to the conflict in Iran, according to analysts. In the UK, the estimated additional cost is £140 annually for drivers covering 8,000 miles.
The Transport & Environment (T&E) thinktank calculated that sustained oil at $100 a barrel would mean EU motorists paying €55bn more over a year, based on data from 2022 when Russia's invasion of Ukraine pushed prices to similar levels. The Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) estimates British drivers face a £140 rise compared to early March prices, before US and Israeli attacks on Iran.
Electric vehicle owners stand to save more as oil prices surge. In the UK, annual savings for EV drivers, already £870, would exceed £1,000 with $100 oil. Across the EU, the 7.7 million electric cars on the road would save about €40m daily, T&E said.
Antony Froggatt of T&E warned: “Europe’s oil dependency creates a geopolitical premium whenever there is global volatility. Europe must now prioritise electric vehicles, heat pumps and renewable energy to ensure this never happens again.” Colin Walker of the ECIU added: “It’s all too reminiscent of the oil price surge after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and a stark reminder that the UK has no real control over the price of oil.”
Oil companies benefit greatly from price shocks. In 2022, the five biggest shareholder-owned firms—BP, Shell, TotalEnergies, Chevron and ExxonMobil—made almost $200bn in profit. The EU's windfall profit regulation, which clawed back some profits in 2022-2023, has lapsed, and T&E urges its reintroduction if high prices persist. The UK retains a windfall tax, and experts warn against easing it.
The UK government's climate advisers stated that achieving net zero by 2050 would cost less than a single oil shock like that from the Ukraine war, insulating the country from future spikes. Froggatt concluded: “Rolling back on policies to achieve climate targets will only make us less secure.”
