Recent developments in the Middle East and a public disagreement with former US President Donald Trump appear to have provided a modest boost to Prime Minister Keir Starmer's popularity, lifting it from record lows. According to the latest Opinium poll, Sir Keir's approval rating has increased by four points over the past week, though it remains deeply negative at minus 38.
Polling Shifts and Political Context
This improvement marks a recovery from the record low of minus 49 that Starmer hit at the end of last month, prior to the initiation of US-Israeli attacks on Iran. The crisis in the Middle East, coupled with Starmer's refusal to allow UK bases to be used for what he termed 'offensive' strikes against Iran, sparked a clash with Donald Trump. The former president criticized Starmer as 'disappointing' and 'no Churchill,' despite the Prime Minister later adjusting his position to support America's 'defensive' operations against Tehran's missile launches.
Internal Labour Dynamics and External Pressures
There are indications that this international turmoil has bolstered Starmer's standing among Labour MPs, who had been in open rebellion over issues such as the Mandelson scandal and the party's defeat in the Gorton & Denton by-election. However, the real-world impact of these events on British citizens' finances is only beginning to be felt, adding a layer of uncertainty to the political landscape.
Potential rivals within the Labour Party, notably Angela Rayner, continue to position themselves for future challenges. Rayner has been actively involved in a Labour revolt against stringent immigration measures, which many view as crucial for countering the rising support for Reform UK. The Opinium poll still shows Nigel Farage's party leading in voting intentions with 27% support, although this figure has dropped by three points in a week. Labour trails at 21%, followed by the Conservatives at 17% and the Greens at 15%.
Rayner's Leadership Moves and Financial Scrutiny
Angela Rayner has reportedly been engaging with City financiers in recent weeks, aiming to alleviate concerns about potential increases in public borrowing under her leadership. She is also building a financial warchest through lucrative speaking engagements and a rumoured £100,000 advance for a memoir. Despite these efforts, opponents highlight that she has yet to resolve negotiations with HMRC over unpaid tax issues that led to her resignation in September.
Rayner has already broken ranks to criticize Starmer on welfare reforms and the handling of files related to the Lord Mandelson scandal, actions that some interpret as 'blatant' leadership manoeuvring. With local elections approaching in May, seen as a critical moment of risk for Starmer, the internal dynamics within Labour remain tense and fluid.
