The question Labour MPs have been asking themselves and each other is whether the immediate crisis is over for Keir Starmer. After last week's chaotic Commons scene over the release of the Peter Mandelson documents, many believed the prime minister's leadership was in its final throes. A call from Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar for Starmer to resign looked like the start of a coup, but it fizzled out.
Starmer's fighting speech to MPs and peers on Monday evening changed the mood. One MP described the gathering as starting with a sincere apology, like a Scottish Presbyterian service of repentance, and ending with MPs resembling Southern Baptists singing hallelujah. Yet a softly-spoken cabinet minister, hurrying out of the Commons, simply answered 'No' when asked if the peril was over. Leadership change is a genie that is hard to rebottle; Douglas Ross's call for Boris Johnson to resign in 2022 had little impact, but Johnson eventually fell months later.
The party's underlying predicament remains unchanged. Labour is polling at historic lows, well behind Reform, and in some polls flirting with fourth place behind the Greens and Conservatives. Starmer is the most unpopular prime minister on record, a depth achieved because his natural supporters have lost faith. A byelection in Gorton and Denton on 26 February could see Labour finish third, after Andy Burnham was excluded from the ballot. More exchanges between Mandelson and ministers are likely to be released, and May's elections are expected to bring losses in Wales, Scotland, and London.
There is still a chance Starmer survives these known threats. Campaigners in Gorton report canvass returns not as desperate as feared, and expectation management has prepared MPs for the worst. The Mandelson texts may spare the prime minister personal embarrassment, given their never-close relationship. But an unknown threat could emerge, as the Chris Pincher scandal did for Johnson after he had survived earlier denunciations. The parliamentary Labour party remains a tinderbox, even if Monday's speech poured some cold water on it.
Many thoughtful cabinet and PLP members want Starmer to seize the moment of greatest peril for a wider reset, embracing a more progressive politics and an economic change. He has won back some goodwill, but how he uses it will define the next phase of his leadership, and whether it is the final one.
