Sir Keir Starmer gathered his new-look Cabinet for the first time on Tuesday as Andy Burnham set out his stall for a potential leadership challenge. The regular Cabinet meeting was the first since Wes Streeting resigned as health secretary and called on the Prime Minister to quit last week.
Cabinet seeks stability amid turmoil
Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy joked that it was “a nicer week than last week” as he arrived for the Downing Street meeting, as Sir Keir attempted to show the business of government was continuing despite the Westminster upheaval. Meanwhile, Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham used a slick campaign video to outline his vision after stating that his bid to win the Makerfield by-election was driven by the need to “change Labour”.
In the video, set to music by Manchester bands including Elbow, James, and Oasis, Mr Burnham declared he wanted “a new path for Britain”. The by-election was triggered by former minister Josh Simons stepping down to allow the mayor to seek a return to Westminster and potentially challenge Sir Keir.
Political reactions and stakes
Cabinet minister Pat McFadden, an ally of Sir Keir, told reporters: “Any unnecessary by-election is always a risk. It’s the voters who have their say, but like any by-election that is called for whatever reason, I want Labour to win.” Reform UK is targeting the seat and has criticised the “expensive by-election” as being driven by Mr Burnham’s “own personal ambition” rather than the constituency’s interests.
Mr Burnham responded: “Some say this by-election is unnecessary. I say it’s the most consequential of our lives. I don’t take anything for granted and I’m ready to accept the consequences of whatever choice people make.” Outlining his political stance, he said: “Manchesterism is the end of neoliberalism, the end of trickle-down economics that has left out places like Makerfield. Make no mistake, that means a new path for Britain.”
By-election dynamics and polling
Mr Burnham has sought to reassure voters in the Leave-supporting Makerfield constituency that he is not aiming to rejoin the European Union, despite having previously expressed a desire to see that happen in his lifetime. He has also attempted to calm bond markets by insisting he will adhere to the Government’s fiscal rules. In the Commons, the writ was moved for the Makerfield by-election, likely to be held on June 18.
Pollster Luke Tryl, director of More In Common, said Mr Burnham’s candidacy could provide a 20-point boost to Labour’s prospects in a seat otherwise “tailor-made” for Reform UK. Mr Tryl noted that the mayor’s popularity puts him “narrowly ahead” at the start, but “anything could happen” during the campaign, with his handling of a “change message” likely to be crucial. He added: “Andy Burnham definitely wants it to be Andy Burnham versus Reform. If it’s Labour versus Reform, Reform win.”
Leadership challenge prospects
Sir Keir has insisted he will not set a timetable for his departure even if the mayor returns to Parliament. If the Prime Minister does not resign, Mr Burnham would need the backing of 81 Labour MPs to trigger a leadership challenge, potentially pitting him against Sir Keir for party members’ votes. However, one of Mr Burnham’s supporters suggested the mayor would not seek an immediate fight. Leeds MP Alex Sobel told LBC it was not his “expectation” that Mr Burnham would immediately trigger a contest, saying he would “come back and potentially serve in the Government, try and help us turn this Government round”.
Polling by YouGov indicated that Mr Burnham would be Labour members’ preferred leader, with 47% naming him as their first choice. Sir Keir received 31%, followed by former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner on 8%. Only 4% ranked Mr Streeting first, with 57% saying he was wrong to resign as health secretary. In a direct contest between Mr Burnham and Sir Keir, 59% backed the mayor while 37% supported the Prime Minister. Following a series of resignations from junior government ranks last week in protest at Sir Keir’s leadership, Mr Streeting’s final remaining parliamentary private secretary, Steve Race, has also quit his role at the Health Department.
