Britain is on course for its seventh Prime Minister in a decade as Keir Starmer resigns and Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham is expected to take over without a contest. Experts point to deep divisions caused by Brexit and a pattern of leaders entering No10 without a clear plan as the driving forces behind the political churn.
Brexit and Party Discipline Collapse
Polling expert Sir John Curtice said Brexit was a factor in the turmoil, as Parliament struggled to handle the referendum result and old party lines dissolved. However, he stressed that a failure to hold parties together was a common thread: "It's only partly to do with Brexit. Cameron, definitely Brexit, lost a referendum. May, clearly Brexit, unable to come up with the Brexit deal that she could get through the House of Commons. Boris Johnson, nothing to do with Brexit, everything to do with the feeling inside his MPs that his relationship with the truth was too tenuous to be sustained. Liz Truss, doesn't take civil service advice, ploughs on with increasing spending and reducing taxation, and the bond markets take fright. Rishi Sunak, nothing to do with Brexit, lost an election. Starmer, half Brexit. Starmer's fundamental problem is that he's not a politician, never developed a narrative for his government, and in a sense made his current situation worse for himself by winning such a large Parliamentary landslide on such a small share of the vote because it just means he's got loads of MPs who have relatively small majorities."
Burnham's Potential for Stability
Despite the revolving door, Sir John suggested Burnham could turn things around, citing his recent success in Makerfield: "Burnham starts off with reasonable popularity, though he's not that popular, but he's got a way with people, to use language that resonates with them and creates something of an emotional or empathetic bond. That's pretty valuable in politics."
Lack of Preparation and Vision
Hannah White, CEO at the Institute for Government, argued that recent PMs entered No10 without a clear vision: "As party leaders have left, the people coming in haven't necessarily had long to prepare. It's not like previous years where they've been leader of the opposition, or preparing for a long time with a policy programme and well thought out plans. We've had a series of people who sort of stepped into the breach without necessarily setting themselves up for success. Without preparation, lots of them have failed." She also noted public impatience: "People are more impatient, but they have also been conditioned by things like the pandemic, the energy crisis after Putin's invasion of Ukraine, to see that if things go dramatically wrong, the government can step in. They think, 'My household finances are really under pressure, why isn't the Government helping?'"
Governability and Media Changes
Former Tory Justice Secretary Sir Robert Buckland insisted the UK is governable: "It's not ungovernable, it is deeply eminently governable. If a minister knows what they want, the civil service will do it for you." He also highlighted changes in media consumption: "I think something got into the water ten years ago with Brexit, and it came at a time when the nature of political communication itself has revolutionised. The way politicians could control narratives through mainstream media has been swept away. The politician that learns how to use new media quickly is the one that wins."
Labour MPs' Frustrations
Labour MPs who rebelled under Starmer complained that the Government never tried to be popular. One said: "I can probably stomach some of the bad stuff if we are looking after disabled people, vulnerable people, we are redistributing wealth and power. But we haven't." Another added: "We now have a politician as a Prime Minister, a leader with conviction rather than a glorified civil servant. Andy has demonstrated he can bring the PLP with him, and there's been more contact from Burnham in the past few weeks than Starmer has had in two years."
