Russia's failure to make significant territorial gains on the battlefield has prompted a pivot to intensified air raids on major Ukrainian cities, according to analysts. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) thinktank stated that the strikes are also intended to divert attention from the impact of Ukrainian long-range attacks into Russia. Data from the Finnish Black Bird Group shows that Russian monthly territorial gains have fallen sharply compared to the same period last year.
Ukrainian open-source group DeepState reported that Russian troops in May saw their smallest monthly gains since October 2023, capturing only 14 square kilometres despite a 37.5% increase in assaults. An ISW assessment noted that Ukrainian forces have largely halted the Russian spring-summer 2026 offensive, with Russian gains in May 2026 representing only a fraction of those in May 2025. Ukrainian forces have also recaptured territory this year.
John Helin of the Black Bird Group warned that if Russia cannot significantly increase its momentum, the goal of capturing Donbas this year is slipping out of reach. Mathieu Boulègue of the Center for European Policy Analysis added that Moscow's war machine is grappling with shrinking industrial capacity due to Western sanctions and dwindling weapon stocks, slowly altering the Kremlin's cost-benefit calculus.
In related developments, Ukraine's missile maker Fire Point announced it had test-flown a ballistic missile intended for air defence, as Kyiv faces ammunition shortages for foreign-supplied systems like Patriot. CEO Iryna Terekh said the FP-7.X missile completed a fully controlled manoeuvring flight and will form the basis of the future Freyja anti-ballistic interceptor.
On the ground, a Ukrainian attack on non-residential buildings in Simferopol, occupied Crimea, killed at least three and wounded seven, according to Russian-installed officials. In the Donetsk region, a drone strike hit a bus travelling from Moscow to Simferopol, killing seven and wounding 11. Russian shelling in Kramatorsk killed three civilians and injured 11, while attacks near Dnipro injured eight and caused a large fire. In Kherson, a drone attack destroyed 36 apartments, killing one person.
Ukrainian drones also struck energy and military sites in St Petersburg early on Wednesday, hours before an economic forum, deeply embarrassing President Vladimir Putin. The nearby Kronstadt naval base and shipyard were also hit, setting fire to a guided-missile corvette. The attacks forced the temporary closure of St Petersburg's airport, preventing some guests from attending the forum, which features a roster of Putin-friendly figures including former German chancellor Gerhard Schröder and right-wing influencer Candace Owens.
