Russia cannot win militarily in Ukraine and is now desperately lashing out at easier civilian targets in major cities such as Kyiv, Kharkiv, Dnipro, and Pavlograd, according to former Senedd Member Mick Antoniw. As Ukraine's army advances in the East, Putin, in desperation, resorts to terrorism, and civilians pay the price. It is the energy infrastructure, schools, hospitals, and homes that bear the brunt of his brutal attacks.
Five Years of War and a Geo-Political Tragedy
Five years into the war, what Putin was told would be a three-day special military operation has turned into a major mindless geo-political tragedy. Donald Trump's recent betrayal of Ukraine creates a major chasm in NATO and between Europe and the USA. Whether his reasoning is genuinely held or just delusional doesn't matter.
Putin's illegal invasion of Ukraine has turned out to be an economic and geo-political disaster for Russia and, in particular, those nations which form part of the modern Russian empire or Federation. It is citizens of those "Republics" that have borne the main consequences of Putin's economic policies and imperial ambitions, including extreme social and economic poverty, Russification, and an estimated one and a half million dead or wounded.
Ukraine Recovers Territory as Russian Front Line Fragments
Ukraine has survived and is now recovering territory as part of the Russian front line begins to fragment and collapse under pressure of losing around 30,000 deaths or casualties per month. But the toll is exhausting for all and the ongoing impact on infrastructure devastating. Many formerly vibrant East Ukrainian cities are now largely abandoned and destroyed under the relentless barrage of Russian scorched earth tactics.
What has not changed is the conviction that Russia cannot win militarily, so it is now desperately lashing out at civilian targets. These war crimes are largely ignored by an increasingly impotent United Nations. Russia is at war with Europe, but it is for now largely an indirect and hybrid war that has been building for well over two decades, psychological and propagandist in nature, using the full weaponry facilitated by social media.
Europe's Democratic Front Line
Putin has nurtured and seduced the far right in Europe and even parts of the far left who seem unable or unwilling to recognise that Russia is now a fascist state. Former communists and socialists overtly or subliminally have become part of Putin's far right message, apologists for his dictatorship and war crimes. From the far right, Antoniw regularly hears their message of "not my war" mindlessly posted on social media sites, similar to the siren calls for appeasement to Hitler in the 1930s.
Ukraine has become the front line of European democracy. Were it to fall, that would mark the beginning of the end of the Baltic States and Moldova, and could lead to a major conflict with NATO Europe. There is now a recognition that the USA can no longer be considered a reliable political ally. Europe must now develop its own economic and defence resilience.
Ukraine was a major nuclear power when it voted overwhelmingly for independence. It gave up its nuclear arsenal for a guarantee from the USA, UK, and others, ironically including Russia, of its sovereignty. So it is our war, but it is more than that; supporting Ukraine is a fight against fascism and for democracy.
Wales's Continued Support for Ukraine
Trump's betrayal may well have political consequences in the mid-term elections. American democracy itself is under increasing threat, as is democracy in France and Germany from the far right and parts of the left. Ukraine's victory and survival is as much about our democratic survival as it is about Ukraine's. Andy Burnham has taken a lead throwing his weight fully behind Zelensky, but we must do much more. We need a closer economic and defence alignment with Europe; our future is integrally linked to Europe's, which is integrally linked to Ukraine's.
This winter is going to be the hardest yet and will be the strongest test of Ukrainian resilience. Even after five years of war, the Senedd, Welsh trade unions, politicians from all main political parties, and ordinary communities continue to play their part. Welsh miners and the NUM have consistently supported Ukrainian miners on the front line. Many communities have taken Ukrainian women and children who have had to flee the war to their hearts.
Senedd4Ukraine, a cross-party group of Welsh politicians, has made 18 deliveries of aid, now with the support of Americans and Canadians, delivering some 70 four-by-four pick-up vehicles and several million pounds of aid directly to front-line defenders and rescue workers. Soon, a monument to honour Welsh journalist Gareth Jones, who exposed Stalin's famine which in Ukraine led to over four million deaths, will be unveiled in Kyiv, cementing the unique historic relationship between the people of Wales and Ukraine.
By supporting Ukraine, the UK and Wales are fighting for something fundamental to our future wellbeing and stability: the rule of law, international law, human rights, and democracy. It is not our war by choice, but just as we took a stand against Hitler's fascism in the thirties, so we are now tested again. We must and we will succeed.
