In focus groups held in Warrington South and Godalming and Ash, former Conservative voters expressed scepticism about Robert Jenrick and the infighting within the party, while showing openness to Nigel Farage and Reform UK. The seats, which once formed part of the Conservatives' 2019 coalition, now illustrate the party's decline, with Reform projected to win Warrington South comfortably.
Participants in both groups praised Kemi Badenoch's decisiveness in dismissing Jenrick from the shadow cabinet, but some worried it signalled a return to the 'chaos inside the party' that led to their 2024 defeat. Jenrick was described as 'scripted', 'not very convincing', and lacking substance. One participant called him a 'drama queen' for his 'broken Britain' claims.
Views on whether Britain is broken varied. In Godalming, the consensus was 'breaking, not broken yet', while in Warrington, there was a darker mood, with complaints about the NHS, police, pensions, and rising costs. The cost of living was eroding solidarity, with one voter saying, 'It's becoming selfish because everybody is struggling.'
Despite reservations about Farage, several participants admired his conviction. 'He stands by his convictions,' said one. Another compared him to Margaret Thatcher. Even in Godalming, a non-Reform area, some saw Farage as more positive and proactive. Participants were unconcerned that Reform was taking Tory defectors, with one comparing the party to the 'Globetrotters' – taking the best players.
