Nigel Farage's Reform UK has suffered a setback as a new YouGov poll for The Times and Sky News shows the party at 24% support, its lowest level in nine months. The figure marks a two-point decline from previous surveys and falls well short of the party's peak of around 31% last summer.
The Conservatives climbed one point to 20%, while Labour rose two points to 19%, suggesting some voters are returning to the two main parties. The poll was conducted before the defection of former Tory chancellor Nadhim Zahawi, which drew mixed reactions from Reform supporters.
Pollster Keiran Pedley of Ipsos described the result as being within the margin of error, noting that YouGov has typically shown lower Reform leads than other pollsters. He added: 'If this was the true state of play Labour will fancy the next election.'
Electoral Calculus projections based on the poll suggest Reform would fall 44 seats short of a majority, winning 282 seats, while Labour would be reduced to 122 and the Tories to 78. However, The Spectator's average tracker still places Reform on 31%, with the Tories at 18% and Labour at 17%, indicating the YouGov survey may be an outlier.
