Keir Starmer faces a bleak electoral landscape as local and devolved elections this week are expected to reveal Labour's loss of traditional strongholds. Council seats in northern England are predicted to fall to Reform UK, while inner London areas may go Green. The Scottish National Party is likely to remain the largest party at Holyrood, and Plaid Cymru could become the largest in the Senedd, ending decades of Labour dominance in Wales.
If Plaid Cymru forms the next Welsh government, it would mark a symbolic fracture in the UK, with Northern Ireland and Scotland already led by parties opposed to union with England. Downing Street would struggle to dismiss such results as normal midterm turbulence, as Labour appears unable to define its core voters or strongholds.
The Conservative Party is also in decline, with its base split along Brexit lines: Reform UK appeals to Leave voters, while the Liberal Democrats consolidate Remain areas. The two-party duopoly that defined 20th-century British politics has broken down outside Westminster, where Labour and the Tories still dominate but seem relics of another era.
In Scotland, the SNP benefits from a pro-independence bedrock and fragmented unionist vote, while Labour's national brand hampers its Scottish branch. In Wales, First Minister Eluned Morgan struggles with double incumbency, as Starmer's premiership removes the ability to blame Tory rule. Plaid Cymru offers an alternative for left-wing voters frustrated with Labour, though its independence stance is muted.
Nigel Farage, Reform UK's leader, could become a key figure in this realignment, potentially shaping the debate on the UK's union. The results may further radicalise Scottish and Welsh nationalism, as Reform sets the tone on inclusion in the British state.
