Keir Starmer has won a temporary reprieve after a fighting speech to Labour MPs and peers on Monday evening, but the prime minister remains surrounded by danger as polling hits historic lows and crucial tests loom. The speech, described by one MP as a shift from a 'Scottish Presbyterian-style gathering full of repentance' to 'Southern Baptists singing hallelujah', persuaded some previously critical MPs to give him another chance.
The immediate crisis was sparked by last week's Commons chaos over the release of Peter Mandelson documents, which led Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar to call for Starmer's resignation. However, the expected coup fizzled out. Yet as one cabinet minister noted, 'leadership change is a genie that is hard to put back in the bottle', recalling how Douglas Ross's call for Boris Johnson's resignation in 2022 preceded Johnson's downfall months later.
Labour's polling is dire: the party trails Reform UK and in some polls sits fourth behind the Greens and Conservatives. Starmer is the most unpopular prime minister on record, with his own supporters losing faith. A byelection in Gorton and Denton on 26 February could see Labour come third, partly due to Starmer's decision to exclude Andy Burnham from the ballot. Further Mandelson document releases threaten more embarrassment.
The May elections pose additional threats, including expected losses in the Welsh Senedd, Scottish Parliament defeats, and council losses in London to Greens and independents. However, some hope remains: Gorton canvass returns are not as dire as feared, and expectation management has prepared MPs for the worst. Starmer could survive if luck turns, but the parliamentary Labour party remains a tinderbox.
Many in the cabinet and PLP want Starmer to use this moment for a wider reset—'Keir unleashed'—embracing progressive politics and economic reform. How he uses the goodwill he has regained will define whether this is the final phase of his leadership.
