Colombia stands at a critical juncture as its upcoming presidential election will determine whether the nation remains a global leader in climate activism or pivots toward increased mining and fracking. The contest, marked by stark ideological divides, has drawn international attention, particularly due to the potential influence of Donald Trump's brand of politics in Latin America.
A Gathering of Activists
In a quiet Caribbean neighborhood, environmental activists gathered under a mango tree, their numbers spilling beyond the plastic chairs arranged in a courtyard. The speaker, Susana Muhamad, a former environment minister and globally respected socio-environmental campaigner, addressed the crowd on a night of profound historical significance. The presidential election, she warned, would decide Colombia's future direction on climate policy.
President Gustavo Petro, of the Pacto Historico coalition, is constitutionally barred from seeking a consecutive second term. His party has selected Iván Cepeda as its candidate to continue Petro's policies. Opposing them are far-right candidate Abelardo de la Espriella and centre-right candidate Paloma Valencia, both of whom advocate for expanding oil extraction and fracking. Concerns about U.S. interference loom large, with Trump having discussed military intervention in Colombia.
Muhamad's Urgent Message
Muhamad told attendees, “We must win in the first round because the future of Colombia will be decided here, in this very complicated international context. If we don’t win, our country will be another in Latin America aligned with Donald Trump. We have to win. Otherwise, everything we’re talking about will be completely suspended for four years. Goodbye.”
She highlighted Colombia's progress in declaring its Amazon rainforest a fossil fuel-free zone and Petro's efforts to curtail mining, protect communities from pollution, and position the country as a “great power for life.” In contrast, she pointed to Bolivia, where the government has sold off parts of the Junín River basin to a lithium mining company, and Ecuador, where President Daniel Noboa is weakening Indigenous land defenders and opening protected areas for mineral exploitation.
Colombia's Global Climate Role
Colombia plays an outsized role in the push for climate justice. Muhamad has been a leading advocate for transitioning away from fossil fuels at international conferences, including Cop29 in Dubai and the biodiversity Cop16 in Cali. Vice-President Francia Márquez, a Goldman Environmental Prize winner, campaigned against illegal gold mining in her ancestral community of La Toma. Environment Minister Irene Vélez Torres co-chaired the world's first conference on transitioning away from fossil fuels, forming an alliance of countries eager to accelerate the energy transition.
Petro's government has moved the phaseout of oil, gas, and coal from the margins to the center of global diplomacy, according to Tzeporah Berman, founder of the Fossil Fuel Treaty Initiative. She stated, “The implications of this election reach far beyond Colombia. At a moment of escalating climate disasters and geopolitical instability, the world is watching whether this leadership continues.”
Grassroots Activism and Risks
Environmentalists in Colombia draw strength from grassroots activists, despite the country being one of the deadliest for environmental defenders. Juan David Amaya, a 19-year-old climate activist and founder of Life of Pachamama, noted that the main difference between activists in Colombia and Europe is that “there, they don’t kill you.” After campaigning against oil palm plantations in San Carlos de Guaroa, Amaya received numerous death threats. “In Colombia, doing this is an act of rebellion born from hope, born from love. But it also comes at a very high cost,” he said.
Paula Andrea Hernández, a Pacto Historico campaign manager, described the movement as “popular environmentalism because it comes from peasants and fishermen. We have suffered severe extractivism, often arm in arm with illegal militias, for so long that people realise the fight for territory and environment needs to be about power.”
Domestic Context
Climate and environment are rarely mentioned directly in campaign debates but shape issues like security and health. Drug trafficking often overlaps with illegal mining and forest clearance, while water contamination, rising temperatures, and floods highlight shortcomings in medical provision. Political analyst Leon Valencia observed, “The environment has become a central issue. Both sides have agreed that the relationship with nature has become a strong political identity. Colombia is experiencing a progressive environmentalisation of public opinion.”
However, some campaigners criticize the Petro government for not always matching rhetoric with action. Deforestation in the Amazon has slowed but continues, and illegal gold mining remains widespread. Many parts of Colombia are controlled by armed groups. In Bogotá, the business lobby in Congress blocked the government's most ambitious moves to restrict mining. Rightwing commentators predicted economic disaster when Petro promised to replace fossil fuels with avocados, but GDP growth has remained positive for four years.
Julia Miranda, a lower house deputy from the New Liberal party and nature advocate, argued that the Petro administration has been ineffective domestically. “It is a false discourse – mere rhetoric while their environmental policies have been a failure,” she said. Miranda supports Valencia but sees room for compromise on fossil fuels. “Colombia needs to work with complete seriousness and consistency on the energy transition, but in the meantime we need to use our resources, for example gas.”
Election Outlook
With 10 days until the election on 31 May, the outcome remains uncertain. Polls suggest Cepeda will lead in the first round but fall short of the 50% needed for an outright victory. If a runoff occurs, either rightwing challenger would be favored. Renzo García, a biologist and congressman, warned, “That would be an abysmal setback. A victory by Paloma Valencia or Abelardo de la Espriella would mark a return to an extractivist model, where we hand the country over to the economic interests of the world’s elites.”
