Andy Burnham's inability to rule out rejoining the EU's freedom of movement scheme risks turning the next general election into a referendum on immigration, a contest in which Nigel Farage would likely prevail, according to political commentators.
Polling consistently shows that immigration is perceived as far too high across the UK. Despite this, the Prime Minister appears unable to rule out signing back up to the EU's freedom of movement scheme. His advisers may have seen different polling, or perhaps they have not warned him that going toe-to-toe with Nigel Farage on Brexit is a bad idea.
Farage's Brexit Expertise
Regardless of one's views on Mr Farage, he is intimately familiar with the workings of Brussels and the largesse of eurocrats. While Mr Burnham was climbing the greasy pole of Labour politics, Mr Farage spent the better part of 20 years forging a name for himself as Mr Brexit. When journalists speak to him on the topic, it is clear he is in his element.
The Prime Minister has been keen to make it clear he has no intention of returning to Brussels before a general election, and has ruled out a snap ballot. However, this exposes him to years of litigation on a subject he may be well advised to avoid.
Public Opinion on Immigration
Attitudes towards immigration in Great Britain are stark. When asked whether the level of immigration into Britain over the last 10 years has been too high, too low, or about right, 69% said too high, 16% said about right, and 12% said too low, with 3% saying don't know. For legal migration, 48% said too high, 29% said about right, 15% said too low, and 8% said don't know. For unauthorised migration, 79% said too high, 8% said about right, and 11% said don't know.
When asked whether the UK rejoining the EU would lead to a higher or lower level of immigration compared to recent years, or make no real difference, 41% of all Britons said it would lead to a higher level of immigration, 37% said it would make no real difference, 13% said don't know, and 8% said it would lead to a lower level of immigration.
Electoral Implications
With negotiations due to take place next month in Brussels, journalists and politicians will pick over the details of any deal. Remainers have long desired to unpick the result of the largest democratic vote in British history, and the same tired old arguments are constantly trotted out.
Polling suggests that Brexit, in the eyes of the British people, has failed. Yet blaming the inability of politicians to grasp the nettle on that vote is patronising at best. Rejoining the EU will not fix the problems this country faces.
At the heart of the miscalculation Mr Burnham has made lies his personal desire to return, which has seemingly overridden his ability to face the facts. Seeking a renegotiation that puts the infamous freedom of movement scheme on the table is reckless and electorally poisonous.
Should Mr Farage choose, he could easily make the next general election a referendum on how this country approaches immigration. The choice would be between taking back control of borders by leaving the European Convention on Human Rights, or buddying up to a trading bloc and opening the door again. Mr Farage has made a career out of debating why Britain is best placed outside of the EU. Andy Burnham may now have handed him the best gift of his life – a chance to make those arguments again, at a time when the current on immigration has turned in his favour.
