Andy Burnham is preparing to make a significant announcement on Europe in 20 days, a move that is expected to anger Nigel Farage and Kemi Badenoch while sparking internal conflict within the Labour Party. The Prime Minister's statement will set the tone for the next general election and provide ammunition for the two Brexit-backing party leaders.
Historic EU-UK Summit Planned
On November 20, the president of the European Council, António Costa, and the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, will welcome the UK Prime Minister to Brussels for an historic EU-UK Summit. The meeting has two primary goals: agreeing on new trade deals, likely to involve cutting red tape on food and energy trade, and potentially finalising a youth mobility scheme allowing people under 30 (or possibly under 35) to travel and work freely across the EU and UK.
Former prime minister Sir Keir Starmer wanted to agree these deals, and Andy Burnham is continuing that work. However, the second goal is new, announced by Mr Burnham at his party conference in September. He will use the summit to set out "what I believe the different options are for Britain's long-term relationship with our European partners."
Options on the Table
This goes beyond a better trade deal, which the Government is already working on. Mr Burnham means setting out options such as rejoining the EU in all but name, bringing back full freedom of movement, or simply rejoining officially. The Prime Minister has made his personal view clear, saying more than once that he would like the UK to return to the EU "in my lifetime." He has also said this could only happen if the British people want it, so he will set out the possible options to start a debate.
It is not known for sure whether he will present his proposals to the British public on November 20 itself or a day or two later. Despite suggestions that the Government's approach is confused, the plan appears clear: no big changes before the next election, allowing him to say he has kept promises from Labour's 2024 manifesto. On or around November 20, he will start talking about future changes, then, unless there is a huge public backlash, he will come up with a clear policy—either fully rejoining the EU or rejoining in all but name.
Internal and External Opposition
This policy will be part of Labour's next general election manifesto, and if Labour wins, Mr Burnham can claim a mandate to carry out his plans. However, he faces serious obstacles. Reopening the Brexit debate will fire up Nigel Farage, his party Reform UK, and Reform supporters. It will also provide ammunition for Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch, who says British voters want no more rows about Brexit, and it will divide his own party, with MPs in Brexit-backing constituencies particularly concerned.
Melanie Onn, Labour MP for Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes, has said reopening the Brexit war could "rip apart the whole country again." Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood warned this week there were "very significant issues with freedom of movement when we were in the EU." John Healey has said he does not expect the UK to rejoin the EU in his lifetime; No 10 officials suggested he was joking about being old—he is 66—but Mr Healey has made clear he has no enthusiasm for rejoining. These are public statements, and the Prime Minister has not even set out his options yet; when he does, he will find many Labour MPs want nothing less than another debate about Europe.
