Kemi Badenoch has found her strongest political ground, where she can take repeated shots at Labour and Reform UK, her greatest foes. Speaking aboard HMS Wellington, a former warship on the Thames, she warned that Britain is already at war – not a war of tanks and planes, but a modern threat fought from behind a computer screen, which has already seen factories hacked, power plants sabotaged and European supermarket freezers turned into ovens.
A speech built for the moment
The speech was built for the moment, and the Tory leader was keen to showcase her defence team, which has scored repeated hits in recent months. The threat, however distant it seems, will only grow starker. Experts warn that the wars of tomorrow will not be fought like the conflicts of yesterday, and the rapid pace of technological change adds urgency to the need to shore up defences.
Hyper-intelligent hostile artificial hackers and AI-powered drone swarms are no longer plotlines for sci-fi films. The impact of such attacks has already been seen: a hack on major UK manufacturer Jaguar Land Rover cost the British economy some £2bn. Russian ships also prowl the Channel, threatening undersea communications and power cables.
Labour's soft underbelly
With last week's Budget leaving the Government's 3% defence target to yet another review, Badenoch has spotted Labour's soft underbelly. Polling backs her instinct to attack Labour on defence, and the issue ranks highly in the minds of British voters, with her party showing signs of recovery. Yet the Tories lead by a whisker, not a mile, and Nigel Farage continues to take their vote.
This week could start on a high and end on a low for the Tory leader, as Reform is expected to name its first defence spokesman on Thursday. Until now, that empty post has been one of the Conservative Party's best weapons.
Reform's lack of record
Reform has no record to defend. An analysis by The Independent found Reform MPs took no part in 147 of 210 Commons defence debates and questions since 2024, and nine of Farage's ten interventions were on the Chagos Islands. A credible appointment, such as a former officer, would blunt that attack overnight and give Farage the uniformed face he lacks.
Badenoch also carries baggage that Reform does not. Labour's Luke Pollard was quick to remind voters that it was the Tories who shrank the Army to its smallest size since Napoleon. Reform has no record to defend, so the Tory leader must move fast to find new ground and a way to battle Reform UK when it enters the field. If she sets the terms of the defence debate, Reform's spokesman will be playing catch-up; if not, she risks watching another of her few clear advantages cross the floor.
