For the first time in history, Plaid Cymru has won the most seats in the Welsh Parliament, ending Labour's control of the Senedd since devolution in 1999. The result has sparked debate about whether Welsh independence could be on the horizon, as the party's constitution states its aim is 'to secure independence for Wales in Europe'.
Despite this core principle, Plaid leader Rhun ap Iorwerth has not prioritised independence in his campaign. At the party's annual conference in Newport and the manifesto launch in Wrexham, the topic was not mentioned. Ap Iorwerth has instead focused on the cost of living crisis, the NHS, housing, and securing a better deal for Wales under the current constitutional arrangements.
Plaid Cymru has dropped its previous pledge to hold a referendum on independence if it won a majority. Instead, it proposes a national commission costing half a million pounds to 'lay the foundation' for any future independence plans. Recent polls show only 32% support for Welsh independence, with 52% opposed.
Professor Laura McAllister of the Wales Governance Centre noted that ap Iorwerth's approach mirrors the SNP's strategy from 2007, and that current polling support for independence is similar to Scotland's position two years before its 2014 referendum. She added that if independence becomes a defining issue, it could lead to a fundamental political realignment in Wales.
With Labour slipping to third place and Reform UK gaining ground, the election was seen as a contest between Welsh-aligned and British-aligned voters. Reform UK leader Nigel Farage described the Welsh language as 'foreign', further polarising the debate.
