Former taoiseach Leo Varadkar has warned that a Reform-led UK government seeking to 'double down on Brexit' could act as an 'accelerator' towards Irish reunification. Speaking at the Future of these Islands event in Belfast, Varadkar said such a government, potentially led by Nigel Farage, could push for a harder separation from the EU and reopen questions around the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR), which underpins much of the Good Friday Agreement.
Varadkar: Reform Government a 'Possibility'
Varadkar described a Reform-led government as a 'possibility' rather than a 'probability', but stressed the need to consider its consequences. He noted that a UK general election, previously expected in 2029, could now happen as early as 2027, potentially resulting in a Reform-led government or a Reform-Conservative coalition. 'I think, in the end, the UK won't vote for Reform,' he said, but added that the possibility must be considered.
O'Callaghan: Border Poll Could Be Held Within Four Years
Ireland's Minister for Justice Jim O'Callaghan suggested that a Reform UK government could hasten the timeline for calling referenda on reunification. 'There could be (a poll in the next four years) if Reform came to power, if they decided that they wanted to get out of the European Convention on Human Rights and if that required them to dispense with Northern Ireland,' he told reporters. O'Callaghan also restated his view that organisations such as the PSNI could be retained in a united Ireland, working alongside the Garda.
Fine Gael to Set Out Vision for United Ireland
Varadkar welcomed the announcement by his successor as Fine Gael leader, Simon Harris, that the party would set out its vision for a united Ireland later this year. 'I was very happy about it, and I'm very glad to see that Fine Gael will be active in this space,' Varadkar said. O'Callaghan said he was not concerned by Fine Gael's move, adding that it was healthy for political parties in the south to prepare and discuss the issue.
Planning for Constitutional Change
O'Callaghan said there was an onus on future Irish governments to start planning for constitutional change, but acknowledged this would be a 'sensitive political issue' given concerns about antagonising unionists. He suggested initially framing the question in the context of the Republic of Ireland rather than the whole island. 'That is a sensitive way for the Irish state to put out what it is we're prepared to do to achieve Irish reunification,' he said.
SDLP Leader: Rise of English Nationalism 'Looms Large'
SDLP leader Claire Hanna welcomed the contributions at the event and said the rise of English nationalism 'looms quite large' in the debate on Irish unity. 'The prospect of a Reform-led or Reform-infused UK government is serious, and every single speaker acknowledged the reality of that,' she said, adding that such a government could decide to 'dispense with this region' or create a crisis by leaving the ECHR.
