China has accused Japan of 'reckless new militarism' and imposed new export controls on 40 Japanese companies over dual-use items, while Tokyo protests Chinese coast guard incursions and joint bomber exercises with Russia. Japan is also deploying missile launchers on its easternmost island, marking a low point in bilateral relations since World War II.
Root of the Tensions
In November 2025, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi suggested that an attack on Taiwan could trigger deployment of Japan's self-defense forces if it posed an existential threat. Though consistent with official policy, this marked a rare public statement on potential military involvement, prompting Beijing to accuse Takaichi of interfering in domestic affairs. China imposed economic sanctions, cancelled diplomatic meetings, reduced flights, and continued a ban on Japanese seafood imports. Academic and cultural exchanges were also halted.
Historical Hostility
China's grievances stem from Japan's brutal World War II occupation, for which Beijing believes Tokyo has never sufficiently apologized. While Japanese leaders have issued dozens of apologies, China points to visits to Yasukuni Shrine, which enshrines convicted war criminals, as evidence of denial. Japan's remilitarization rhetoric taps into this historical wound, though its defense budget at $58 billion (2% of GDP) remains far smaller than China's $275 billion.
Economic Interdependence
Despite political strains, bilateral trade reached $322 billion in 2025 and continued growing in early 2026. However, China has restricted rare earth exports and arrested two Japanese nationals for violating regulations. Chinese tourist visits to Japan dropped 45% in February 2026, and Japanese film releases in China were cancelled. Economic ties may prevent further escalation, but rapprochement hinges on Takaichi retracting her Taiwan comments, which she is unlikely to do given domestic support.
Diplomatic Outlook
Japanese diplomatic efforts focus on a potential meeting between Takaichi and Xi Jinping at the APEC summit in Shenzhen in November 2026. However, China's foreign ministry spokesperson Lin Jian has repeatedly demanded Takaichi withdraw her remarks, creating a stalemate. Analysts note that economic interdependence provides a buffer, but the path to de-escalation remains uncertain.
