President Donald Trump has been playing kingmaker in Republican primaries across the country to push his preferred candidates and punish those who aren't wholly loyal. But there are budding questions about whether Trump's star power will be a political asset for Republicans in general elections this fall, as the party attempts to hold on to wafer-thin margins in the US House and Senate.
The latest polling conducted exclusively by JL Partners for the Daily Mail reveals that Trump's endorsement could be the kiss of death with independent voters. Forty-three percent of likely 2026 voters say a Trump endorsement would make them less likely to back a candidate, compared to just 35 percent who say it would make them more likely.
Among 2026 independent voters, only 26 percent say they are more likely to support a Trump-backed candidate, with 48 percent saying they are less likely to vote for a candidate backed by the President. Among Republicans however, Trump's backing does have a galvanizing effect with just over two-thirds of respondents saying they are more likely to support a candidate with his endorsement at 67 percent, and only 8 percent being less likely.
Of total respondents, 19 percent said the president's backing made no difference to them, and just 3 percent were unsure. Trump has waded into state elections as well as federal ones. The JL Partners survey found 37 percent believe he should stay out of state-level races entirely, 19 percent think he has been too involved and should pull back, 22 percent say his level of engagement has been about right, and 11 percent want to see more of him.
Trump's own voters take a markedly different view: 42 percent say he has pitched in at the right level, and 21 percent want him more active. Just 14 percent each felt he should not be involved at all, or that he has gone too far.
Among likely 2026 voters, 35 percent say a Trump endorsement would make them more likely to back a candidate, against 43 percent who say it would put them off. The same group is evenly split - 28 percent apiece - between backing a new Republican with Trump's endorsement and sticking with an incumbent who lacks it.
Among Republicans, however, the preference is unambiguous: 61 percent favor a Trump-endorsed newcomer over an incumbent without his blessing, compared with just 25 percent who would side with the incumbent. That could prove a decisive advantage for Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton as he bids to unseat Senator John Cornyn in next Tuesday's Republican runoff for Texas's US Senate seat.
But in a general election, Paxton could face problems against Democrat James Talarico, who has raised over $40 million and could peel some moderate Republicans off to make Texas competitive. Trump today announced he is backing Paxton, which prompted Alaska Republican Lisa Murkowski to categorize that decision as one that 'puts that seat in jeopardy' this fall.
