Kemi Badenoch has seen a surge in support as she battles to stop Reform UK replacing the Conservatives as the main challenger to Labour. Her lead over Nigel Farage in a head-to-head contest has increased to 21 points after the pair were in a near tie last summer. When voters were asked whether Mrs Badenoch or Mr Farage would make the best prime minister, 38% opted for the Tory leader with just 17% saying the Reform boss would be most effective, with the remainder unsure or refusing to say.
Badenoch Wins Over Both Left and Right Voters
YouGov’s analysis suggests Mrs Badenoch is winning over both progressive and Right-leaning voters. More than half (53%) of people who voted Liberal Democrat in 2024 would now back Mrs Badenoch over Mr Farage. Among people who voted Conservative, the share favouring the Reform leader over the top Tory has slumped from 36% in August to 19%. Of these Conservative voters, the share who prefer Mrs Badenoch has surged from 29% to 56%.
Polling Shows Tight Race with Reform
The YouGov polling will fuel hopes the Conservatives can draw level with Reform and overtake the party in time for the general election expected in 2029. Polling this week puts Reform on 25%, ahead of the Tories (20%), Labour (18%), the Greens (15%), the Liberal Democrats (14%) and Restore Britain (3%).
Andy Burnham Emerges as Labour’s Likely New Leader
Labour will hope for a boost in support if – as strongly expected – outgoing Mayor of Greater Manchester Andy Burnham replaces Sir Keir Starmer as Prime Minister. YouGov found that when offered a straight choice as to who would be the best prime minister, 43% opted for Mr Burnham over Mr Farage (23%). The newly-elected Makerfield MP also beat the Greens’ Zack Polanski in a head-to-head contest, 38% v 11%. However, when asked whether Mr Burnham or Mrs Badenoch would make the best PM, the gap was much narrower. The Labour MP was the choice of 32% with Mrs Badenoch on 28%.
YouGov Analyst Comments on Badenoch’s Rise
YouGov’s Dylan Difford said: “As recently as last summer, Kemi Badenoch and Nigel Farage were neck-and-neck in terms of which of the two Right-wing leaders the British public thought would make the best Prime Minister. Since then, Badenoch has emerged as the frontrunner, and she now beats Farage by more than two to one. The Conservative leader’s success has come from winning back some of the people who voted Tory at the last election but who had since been tempted by Farage, as well as a greater willingness of Lib Dem and Labour voters to back her over the Reform leader.”
Conservative Chairman Highlights Badenoch’s Impact
Conservative party chairman Kevin Hollinrake said: "The more the public see of Kemi, the more they like her. The next general election will be the first opportunity the public have had to vote for Kemi and that will make a big difference to people’s voting intentions. Kemi’s Conservatives are the only party consistently holding Labour to account, forcing 27 u-turns on disastrous policies like the family farm tax, grooming gangs and the winter fuel payment."
