Scotland’s recent parliamentary election has sparked debate about the nation's political identity. While Reform UK secured 17 seats, tying with Scottish Labour for second place, the progressive bloc comprising the SNP, Labour, Liberal Democrats, and Greens retained 100 seats. This suggests that the leftwing identity is both myth and reality.
Reform UK's Surge
Reform UK won 16% of the vote, a significant increase from zero. However, this is below their UK-wide projected share of 27%. All their seats came from regional lists under proportional representation. Their best constituency result was 34% in Banffshire and Buchan Coast, a pro-Brexit area, but they lost the seat to the SNP by a few hundred votes.
Impact on Conservatives
The Conservatives suffered their worst result in Scotland, losing over half of their 31 seats. They now hold only rural fiefdoms in the south and north-east. Reform UK's gains came largely at their expense.
Postindustrial Central Belt
Reform performed well in postindustrial areas like Bathgate, Falkirk, Hamilton, and Motherwell. The SNP lost 7-15% of voters in these seats but still holds over a third of the vote. Labour lost many "Yes" voters to the SNP after the independence referendum, but now faces competition from Reform among socially conservative, anti-independence voters.
Progressive Optimism
The rightwing cohort in Holyrood is slightly smaller than before, at 29 seats. The progressive bloc remains stable at 100 seats. The Scottish Greens achieved their best ever result with 15 MSPs, advocating left-populist policies like free bus travel and taxing the rich. They beat the SNP in Glasgow Southside and Edinburgh Central.
SNP's Position
The SNP fell to 58 seats, seven short of a majority. John Swinney may rely more on the Liberal Democrats than the Greens for a centrist government. The rightwing vote share at Holyrood is about 28%, one of the lowest in Europe. Swinney has pledged to exclude Reform from policy negotiations.
Historically, Scotland's leftwing identity has served to exile the right from the political community. The election results show both the resilience of progressive politics and the challenge from the hard right.
