Reform UK could become the largest party in the Welsh Senedd next month, according to a new poll, yet still be shut out of power. The survey suggests Dan Thomas's party is on track to win 37 seats, one more than the nationalist Plaid Cymru. However, this total falls 12 short of the 49 seats required for a majority government in Cardiff Bay, raising the possibility that Thomas could be blocked from becoming First Minister.
Coalition Rejection
During a leaders' debate on Channel 4 last night, the leaders of the other five parties all stated they would refuse to form a coalition with Reform UK. This development increases the likelihood that the collapsing Welsh Labour party might manage to retain power by becoming the junior partner in a Plaid-led administration.
Poll Details
Many recent polls have placed Reform and Plaid as the two largest parties, but this particular survey by ITV Wales, YouGov, and Cardiff University is the first in some time to put Reform in the lead. Last night, Mr Thomas declared: 'We are on the verge of delivering a political earthquake here in Wales.'
While Plaid and Reform are neck-and-neck in vote share at 29 per cent each, the seat distribution gives Reform a slight advantage. However, Dr Jac Larner from Cardiff University's Welsh Governance Centre cautioned that 'finishing first may matter less than it appears.' He explained: 'Whichever party leads on seats will face the same coalition arithmetic, and that arithmetic is far more favourable to Plaid than to Reform. Plaid has credible partners in Labour and the Greens; a combination of those parties can reach a working majority. Reform has no such options. The only party that has indicated any willingness to work with them is the Conservatives, who on these numbers will not come close to bridging the gap to a Senedd majority.'
