The race for European football is intensifying as the Premier League season approaches its conclusion. With only two games remaining, nine clubs are still mathematically in contention for a spot in the Champions League, Europa League, or Conference League next season. Arsenal, Manchester City, and Manchester United have already secured their places in the Champions League, but several other teams are vying for the remaining berths.
Current European Qualification Picture
As it stands, the top five teams in the Premier League will qualify for the Champions League. The team finishing sixth will earn a spot in the Europa League, along with the FA Cup winners. The Carabao Cup winners qualify for the Conference League, but since Manchester City won the Carabao Cup and have already qualified for the Champions League, their Conference League place will be awarded to the highest-placed Premier League team not yet qualified for Europe—currently seventh place.
Aston Villa's run to the Europa League final adds further complexity. If Villa win the Europa League and finish fifth in the Premier League, an extra Champions League place will be awarded to the sixth-placed team. However, if Villa win the Europa League but finish fourth or higher, only the top five will qualify for the Champions League, and the Premier League will lose its Europa League spot for league position.
Teams Still in Contention
The nine clubs still in with a chance of European football are: Aston Villa, Liverpool, Brighton, Bournemouth, Brentford, Chelsea, Everton, Fulham, and Sunderland. Each team has different paths to qualification, depending on results in the final two games and the outcomes of cup finals.
Key Scenarios
- If Aston Villa win the Europa League and finish fifth: The top six teams qualify for the Champions League. Sixth place goes to the Champions League, seventh to the Europa League, and eighth to the Conference League (if the FA Cup winner is already qualified).
- If Aston Villa win the Europa League and finish fourth: Only the top five go to the Champions League. Sixth goes to the Europa League, seventh to the Conference League.
- If Chelsea win the FA Cup: If Chelsea finish sixth, seventh goes to the Europa League and eighth to the Conference League. If Chelsea finish outside the top six, they take the Europa League spot, and the Conference League spot goes to the next highest team.
- If Manchester City win the FA Cup: Sixth and seventh qualify for the Europa League, eighth for the Conference League.
- If Crystal Palace win the Conference League: They would qualify for the Europa League, adding another team from England.
Final Day Dilemmas
The final day of the season could produce unusual incentives. For example, Brighton and Brentford might benefit from losing if it helps Aston Villa stay fifth, opening an extra Champions League spot. Brighton face Manchester United on the final day, while Brentford host Liverpool. A win for Liverpool could push them above Villa, which might not be in Brighton or Brentford's interest if Villa winning the Europa League would give them a Champions League place.
The Europa League final takes place on Wednesday, before the final weekend of the Premier League season. This will clarify the qualification picture. If Villa win, it would be in the best interest of Brighton and Brentford to ensure Villa finish fifth to unlock an additional Champions League spot.
What Each Club Needs
- Aston Villa: Need to secure fifth place or higher. Winning the Europa League guarantees Champions League football regardless of league finish.
- Liverpool: Need to finish fourth or higher to guarantee Champions League. If they finish fifth and Villa win the Europa League, they could still qualify.
- Brighton: Currently sixth. Need to hold off challenges from below. If Villa win the Europa League and finish fifth, Brighton could get Champions League as sixth.
- Bournemouth, Brentford: Need to finish sixth or higher, or seventh if cup results fall favorably. Champions League possible only if Villa win Europa and finish fifth, and they finish sixth.
- Chelsea: Currently ninth. Need to finish at least sixth for Europa League, or seventh/eighth depending on FA Cup.
- Everton, Fulham, Sunderland: Need to finish sixth or higher, or rely on cup winner scenarios to qualify for Europa or Conference League.
With so many permutations, the final two games promise to be thrilling for fans of these clubs. European football is still within reach for many, but the margins are tight.
