The first wave of post-budget polling reveals a story that is both obvious and unusual. The budget has been received poorly; voters believe it will harm them personally, worsen inflation, and divide generations without fixing the housing market. Yet, the political damage is not translating into support for the Opposition.
Structural Shift Underway
Instead, the budget has amplified a larger structural shift already in motion: both major parties are weakened, but the Coalition is not the automatic beneficiary of Labor's struggles. This is the real story across Newspoll, Resolve, Roy Morgan, and Freshwater surveys. One Nation continues to rise, though it almost certainly cannot challenge Labor to form government.
Newspoll's Verdict
Newspoll is the most striking poll, showing a brutal verdict on the budget without a commensurate collapse in Labor's vote. Labor's primary vote remains unchanged at 31 per cent, while the Coalition slips to 20 per cent, One Nation rises to 27 per cent, and the Greens sit at 12 per cent. On the budget itself, the numbers are grim for Labor and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese: 52 per cent expect to be worse off, only 11 per cent better off; 47 per cent say the budget is bad for the economy, compared with 22 per cent who say it is good; and 48 per cent expect it to worsen inflation.
Newspoll also finds the budget's economic rating is the worst since the Keating government's 1993 budget, while its personal impact rating is the worst since the Abbott government's 2014 budget. However, Albanese is still ahead of Opposition Leader Angus Taylor as preferred prime minister, 46 to 38 per cent, despite a disapproval rating of 57 per cent. Taylor has improved slightly, but not enough to make the Coalition look like a government-in-waiting.
Resolve Poll Insights
Resolve points in the same direction, albeit with one key difference. Its post-budget poll has Labor's primary vote down to 29 per cent, the Coalition unchanged on 23 per cent, One Nation up to 24 per cent, and the Greens at 12 per cent. But it also has Taylor ahead of Albanese as preferred PM, 33 to 30 per cent, with a large 37 per cent undecided. This is significant because Albanese's authority is eroding amid broken promises. Resolve also shows that voters are more supportive of the capital gains tax and negative gearing changes, despite the broken promises, but the overall budget still leaves more voters saying it is bad rather than good for their households.
The issue is not just policy substance; it is trust, timing, and competence in managing the economy during difficult times. According to Resolve, 36 per cent of voters say broken promises have damaged their view of Labor.
Roy Morgan's Wild Numbers
Roy Morgan's polling is the most extreme. Its snap SMS poll conducted immediately after budget night puts One Nation's primary vote higher than Labor's, at 32 per cent to 28.5 per cent, with the Coalition on just 16.5 per cent. The popularity of One Nation and Pauline Hanson continues to rise, but it almost certainly cannot challenge Labor to form government. On a two-party preferred basis, Morgan has Labor narrowly ahead of One Nation, by 51 to 49 per cent. Morgan also registers 59 per cent disapproval of Albanese's performance.
Freshwater Polling
Freshwater polling has Labor and the Coalition tied at 50-50 on the two-party preferred vote, after Labor led 53 to 47 per cent pre-budget. But the Coalition still trails both Labor and One Nation on primary votes. Freshwater also finds that more than double those surveyed rate the budget negatively for the economy (46 per cent) rather than positively (21 per cent).
Failed the Voter Test
Taken together, the polls suggest the budget has failed the basic voter test: voters see higher taxes, inflation risks, housing uncertainty, and intergenerational conflict. This is politically toxic for a government already battling cost-of-living fatigue. The housing reforms are not necessarily unpopular in isolation, but voters have noticed the broken promises, hence the hit to the PM's credibility. Support for the ideas is being overwhelmed by distrust in the execution.
Labor's problems, however, are far from terminal because the Coalition remains deeply damaged and under siege on its right flank from One Nation. Pauline Hanson's party is now more than a protest footnote. Across the post-budget polls, its primary vote is higher than the Coalition's and even pips Labor, according to Morgan's findings. The precise numbers vary, but the political message does not: a large bloc of voters is turned off the Labor Party, but they are parking their anger outside the two-party system.
Albanese's Standing
Albanese's personal standing is becoming a problem in its own right. Newspoll still has him ahead as preferred PM, but Resolve has the hapless Taylor narrowly in front, and Morgan records particularly heavy disapproval of the PM. The deeper danger for Labor is that Albanese's brand was built on trust, but the broken promises in the budget have taken that away.
Voters often dislike budgets before adjusting to them. Treasurer Jim Chalmers can argue that tough decisions were necessary, housing reform requires upsetting entrenched interests, and the Coalition has no credible alternative vision. Taylor sought to challenge that with ideas announced in his budget reply. However, Newspoll finds voters still don't believe the opposition would have delivered a better budget, by 47 to 39 per cent.
Protest Voting Rises
Voters who reject the government aren't automatically embracing the opposition. They can move to One Nation, teals, or the Greens. That makes Labor's task more complicated and the Coalition's predicament more serious. The post-budget polling reveals a government wounded by its own choices, such as broken promises and perhaps even intergenerational hypocrisy amongst its older MPs, like Albanese, benefiting from rules it is changing. But the opposition still doesn't look credible, and protest voting is rapidly becoming the central fact of Australian politics.
The budget may or may not survive the policy debate to come, but politically it has confirmed that the old two-party system is no longer capable of containing voter anger.
