Just 25% of Australians approve of the federal budget, according to the latest Guardian Essential poll, with support for One Nation surging to within one point of Labor. The poll, conducted after the budget a fortnight ago, shows Labor's primary vote at 29%, One Nation at 28%, and the Coalition at 23%. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's net approval has slumped to -17, down from -10 in April.
Key budget measures on housing and tax have failed to convince voters. Only 33% backed winding back negative gearing and capital gains tax (CGT) for property, while 32% supported CGT changes for shares and investments. The most popular measure was the $250 working Australians tax offset, with 47% in favour. However, 56% of voters believe the Labor government has fallen short of expectations since the May 2025 election.
Peter Lewis, executive director of Essential Media, said: "There's high levels of uncertainty about the government's budget policies and their impact. The ongoing cost of living pressures, in a time of declining economic conditions, is creating a low level of confidence in the future."
In contrast, opposition leader Angus Taylor's hardline immigration policies gained majority support. Capping immigration to the number of new house builds was backed by 58%, while limiting welfare to citizens only had 57% support. The Coalition has attacked Labor's "broken promise" not to touch negative gearing or CGT, with voters split on whether governments should stick to election commitments (46%) or change position if circumstances change (41%).
The government has billed the budget as addressing intergenerational fairness and fixing the housing market, but voters remain unconvinced. Only 28% believe the property tax changes will make the housing market fairer, while 30% think they will make it more unfair. The poll highlights the challenge for Albanese and Treasurer Jim Chalmers in selling their budget to a skeptical public.
