A political earthquake has shaken the foundations of Welsh politics, with a devastating new poll revealing Sir Keir Starmer's Labour Party is haemorrhaging support in its traditional heartland.
The exclusive YouGov survey for ITV Wales and Cardiff University paints a picture of catastrophic decline for Labour, who have dominated Welsh politics for over a century. The party's support has nosedived to just 37% of Westminster voting intention—its lowest level recorded by YouGov in Wales since devolution began.
Reform UK's Meteoric Rise
In a stunning reversal of fortunes, Nigel Farage's Reform UK has surged into third place, now level pegging with the beleaguered Conservatives at 16% each. This dramatic surge positions Reform as a major disruptive force and a genuine threat to the established political order in Wales.
The poll indicates that nearly a quarter (24%) of those who voted Labour in the 2019 general election have now abandoned the party. Even more alarming for Starmer's team, one in five (19%) of their 2021 Senedd voters have also switched allegiance.
Starmer's Leadership Under Fire
These figures will trigger alarm bells at Labour headquarters, suggesting that despite a commanding lead in UK-wide polls, Starmer is failing to connect with voters in crucial regions. The findings point to a deep-seated crisis of confidence in the Labour leader's vision for Wales and the wider UK.
Professor Roger Awan-Scully of Cardiff University, who analysed the data, described the numbers as "pretty terrible" for Labour, noting the party is "clearly losing significant numbers of supporters" to both Reform and the pro-independence Plaid Cymru.
Conservatives Face Electoral Annihilation
While Labour reels from the shock, the Conservative Party faces potential electoral oblivion in Wales. The poll suggests the Tories could be reduced to just three MPs in the region, down from their current 14, in what would represent a historic collapse.
This seismic shift in the Welsh political landscape suggests that the next general election could produce unexpected results, with Reform UK potentially playing kingmaker in several constituencies. The political establishment in Westminster will be watching these developments with growing unease as the countdown to the election continues.
