The fertility rate for England and Wales has fallen for the third consecutive year, reaching a record low of 1.41 in 2024, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This is the lowest level since comparable data collection began in 1938, down from 1.42 in 2023. The total fertility rate represents the average number of live children a woman can expect to have during her childbearing years.
Despite a 0.6% increase in live births last year, the fertility rate declined due to population growth outpacing the rise in births. Since 1938, this scenario—where births increase while the fertility rate falls—has occurred only six times, with four instances since 2011. For a population to remain stable without migration, a fertility rate of about 2.1 is required.
Greg Ceely, head of population health monitoring at the ONS, noted that fertility rates have been in overall decline since 2010. While the total number of births increased for the first time since 2021, population growth offset this, leading to record-low rates. The average age of parents continues to rise, with mothers averaging 31 years and fathers 33.9 years in 2024, both up by 0.1 years from the previous year.
Regional disparities persist, with the West Midlands and London seeing slight increases in fertility rates—the first regional rises since 2021. Luton recorded the highest rate at 2.0, while the City of London had the lowest at 0.32. In Scotland, the fertility rate fell to 1.25, with the lowest number of births since records began in 1855.
Demography researcher Bernice Kuang from the University of Southampton suggested the decline may be temporary, as many people are postponing having children. Her research indicates that the proportion of people ending their childbearing years without children has not increased significantly, and the UK maintains a strong two-child norm, unlike other countries where one-child families are more common.
