England could face a challenging path to the World Cup final, with potential knockout ties against DR Congo, Mexico, Brazil, and Argentina before meeting Spain in the decider, according to simulations by the Opta supercomputer.
As top seeds in Group L alongside Croatia, Ghana, and Panama, England are strong favourites to progress, with the supercomputer giving them a 96% chance of reaching the knockout stage and a 67.9% likelihood of winning the group. If they top the group, they will face a third-placed team from Groups E, H, I, J, or K, with DR Congo the most probable opponent in the last 32.
Should England beat DR Congo, they would likely face co-hosts Mexico in Mexico City on 5 July. Mexico are favourites to win Group A (47.8%), setting up a tough test for England in front of a partisan crowd at the Azteca. England's only previous World Cup meeting with Mexico was a 2-0 win in the 1966 group stage.
The quarter-finals could see England take on Brazil in New Jersey on 11 July, a team they have never beaten in four World Cup encounters. A victory would set up a semi-final against Argentina in Miami on 15 July, with the supercomputer projecting both teams to reach the semi-finals 9.2% of the time. England have a mixed record against Argentina, including a famous 2-1 win in 2002 and a 1-1 draw in 1998.
If England navigate these hurdles, they would face Spain in the final. Spain are the likeliest team to win their group (75.3%) and have a strong record in recent tournaments. England's last World Cup final appearance was in 1966, when they beat West Germany 4-2.
