Andy Burnham received a significant boost to his campaign to win the Makerfield by-election, as polling placed him 20 points ahead of his party. The Greater Manchester Mayor became Labour's official candidate, enjoying a considerable advantage over his party's usual performance in the constituency.
Polling advantage
According to pollsters More in Common, Mr Burnham outperforms Labour nationally by 63.4 per cent to 42.8 per cent, while in Wigan—where Makerfield is situated—he leads the party by 66.1 per cent to 42.8 per cent. This puts him narrowly ahead at the start of the race, but in a seat that the pollsters warned was 'tailor-made' for Reform UK.
Campaign launch
The Manchester politician released a slick video on Twitter, filmed outside the school he sent his children to, with a soundtrack by Manchester bands Oasis and Elbow. In it, he blamed Margaret Thatcher for Britain's woes and vowed to reverse her legacy. Criticising Sir Keir Starmer, Mr Burnham said he was the candidate to 'change Labour' and called for 'a new path for Britain'. He described the by-election as 'the most consequential of our lives' and said he did not 'take anything for granted'.
Reform UK's challenge
Reform UK's candidate, local plumber Robert Kenyon, also featured in a similarly slick but hyper-local video, pitching the by-election fight as 'David v Goliath'. With no mention of leader Nigel Farage, indicating the campaign will focus on Mr Kenyon as a local candidate, he criticised career politicians like Mr Burnham. He said that for Mr Burnham, Makerfield would be a 'stepping stone', whereas he intended to be a 'local champion'. Mr Kenyon was selected by Reform after contesting the seat for the party in 2024, while Mr Burnham is believed to have been the only person shortlisted for selection for Labour.
Campaign dynamics
More in Common's Luke Tryl said that Mr Burnham outperformed his party by 20 points in a seat 'tailor-made' for Reform. He noted that the mayor's popularity meant he started the race 'narrowly ahead', but added that 'anything could happen' during the campaign. The campaign 'could matter a lot', he said, with Mr Burnham's handling of a 'change message' likely to prove vital. He stated: 'Andy Burnham definitely wants it to be Andy Burnham versus Reform. If it's Labour versus Reform, Reform win.'
Policy positions
Following his selection, Mr Burnham made his pitch to be prime minister, saying he wanted to reduce everyday costs and make life affordable again. He described his political views as 'Manchesterism is the end of neoliberalism, the end of trickle-down economics that has left out places like Makerfield. Make no mistake, that means a new path for Britain.'
Mr Burnham has also sought to downplay his previous calls to rejoin the EU—saying last year that it was something he would like to see in his lifetime. He has made two U-turns already, stating he is no longer pushing for Britain to go back into the EU and that he will stick to fiscal rules. Two-thirds of Makerfield voters backed Brexit, and Reform plans to print Mr Burnham's previous comments about rejoining the EU on its election leaflets.
Brexit reversal
Speaking at the Labour Party conference last September, Mr Burnham said he wanted to rejoin the EU, adding: 'Long term, I'll be honest, I'm going to say it, I want to rejoin.' But he has since reversed his position, saying he 'respected' the referendum result. 'My view is that Brexit has been damaging, but I also believe the last thing we should do right now is re-run those arguments,' he said on Monday. 'I am not proposing that the UK considers rejoining the EU.'
Leadership tensions
Allies of Mr Burnham have accused leadership rival Wes Streeting of trying to damage his by-election chances by reviving Labour's debate about Brexit. Mr Streeting described the decision to leave the EU as a 'catastrophic mistake' and said he would campaign to rejoin after the next election. Labour sources said Mr Streeting will continue to press the case for rejoining in the coming weeks, as the idea is backed by almost nine out of ten Labour members.
Mr Burnham has also backtracked on his previous comments on the bond markets, which took fright at signals he would go on a borrowing binge. Last year, he said Labour had to 'get beyond this thing of being in hock to the bond markets', after he set out his agenda to nationalise public services. But his officials have since insisted he would stand by the fiscal rules set out by Chancellor Ms Reeves to avoid further spooking the financial markets.
Local focus
Mr Burnham is likely to face a fierce fight from Reform along the lines of his Brexit views, but also the fact he was not born in Makerfield, though he is from nearby. Mr Kenyon, who was born in the constituency and won 31.8 per cent of the vote in 2024, said: 'Makerfield has never had a member of Parliament who was actually born in Makerfield. This will be a tough fight but I am going to give this contest my best shot.'
