In a significant shift in the early 2028 US presidential landscape, New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has pulled ahead of Vice President JD Vance for the first time in a direct match-up, according to a fresh survey.
The Poll Numbers and AOC's Reaction
The poll, conducted by The Argument magazine and Verasight between 5 and 11 December 2025, surveyed 1,521 registered voters. It found the self-described democratic socialist would beat the Republican vice president by 51 percent to 49 percent.
Ocasio-Cortez, often known as AOC, swiftly reacted to the findings on social media. She quote-tweeted the poll results on X with the succinct comment, “Bloop!” When questioned by The Independent about her decision to highlight the poll, she offered a characteristically blunt assessment while walking to the House floor: “Because JD Vance is a goober, man.”
Analysing the Electoral Dynamics
Lakshya Jain, the pollster for The Argument, provided a breakdown of the data on X. He noted that the AOC/Vance match-up is one point more favourable for Democrats than a generic party ballot. Jain highlighted two key takeaways for the coming election cycle.
Firstly, he stated that “Vance is weak” as a candidate. Secondly, he compared Ocasio-Cortez to another potential 2028 Democratic contender, California Governor Gavin Newsom. “AOC/Newsom are very similar electorally but with slightly different coalitions,” Jain tweeted. “Newsom's better with whites, AOC with Latinos.”
Ocasio-Cortez's outreach to Latino voters was recently demonstrated through a bilingual advertisement, in both English and Spanish, supporting California's Proposition 50 campaign for congressional redistricting.
AOC's Growing Influence and Future Speculation
Once considered a backbench insurgent, the congresswoman has cemented her role as an increasingly influential power broker within the Democratic Party. Her endorsement helped fellow socialist Zohran Mamdani secure the Democratic nomination for New York City mayor. She also fundraised for Abigail Spanberger's successful Virginia gubernatorial bid, despite Spanberger's past criticisms of progressives like her.
However, she has shown strategic restraint, withholding endorsements from progressive challengers to incumbent Democratic congressmembers in New York. While speculation swirls about a potential 2028 presidential run, many observers believe she may instead challenge Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer for his seat that same year.
For now, Ocasio-Cortez has given no clear indication of her 2028 plans. In Congress, she recently secured a coveted position on the powerful House Energy and Commerce Committee, which oversees key policy areas including energy and healthcare, after not attaining the top spot on the House Oversight Committee.
