A new poll by the Policy Exchange think tank has revealed that Labour is set to see its Muslim vote drain away in the upcoming local elections. Three in five British Muslim voters would consider backing a pro-Gaza independent candidate to prevent Labour from winning, while almost half would consider voting for the Green Party under Zack Polanski's leadership to send a message to the government.
Anger Over Israel-Hamas War
The findings indicate that anti-Labour sentiment has surged among Muslims in key battleground seats, fueled by anger at the government's handling of the Israel-Hamas war. Keir Starmer sparked controversy after appearing to say Israel had the 'right' to cut off water and energy to Gaza, a position he later clarified was not his own. Labour's support among Muslims has collapsed since 2019, when the party won 80% of the community's vote under Jeremy Corbyn. Ahead of the 2024 general election, support had fallen by 20% nationally and even further in some constituencies.
Green Party Surge
In February's Gorton and Denton by-election, the Green Party, under Polanski's pro-Palestine leadership, achieved a surprise victory on a 26.4% swing. The party now commands 27% support among Muslim voters, 10 points higher than its general election average. Around half of Muslims in polled areas are willing to back the Greens to defeat Labour, rising to 60% for Gaza-independent candidates.
Policy Exchange Findings
The research suggests that Starmer's refusal to join US-Israeli attacks on Iran has failed to reverse the decline in support. The poll also raises concerns about electoral integrity, revealing that one-seventh of Muslims in polled areas have had their postal vote collected by a campaigner, a practice illegal since 2022. The survey interviewed over 1,000 British Muslim voters across Greater London, the West Midlands, Greater Manchester, West Yorkshire, and parts of Lancashire, South Yorkshire, and Merseyside.
Diverging Views
A huge rift has opened up between Muslim voters and the rest of the population. They are five times more likely to say that the Israel-Gaza conflict will determine their vote, with one in four citing it as decisive. The poll also found that 25% of British Muslims have a favourable view of Hamas, compared to 28% unfavourable. Similarly, more hold a favourable opinion of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps than an unfavourable one, despite its expected proscription as a terrorist organisation.
Antisemitic Beliefs
One in four Muslim voters believe violence can be a legitimate response to burning the Qur'an or depicting the Prophet Muhammad, over 2.5 times higher than the general public. Additionally, 45% believe Jews have too much power over the media, and 39% over Parliament. Some 21% feel unfavourably towards Jewish people, compared to 11% of the wider electorate.
Expert Warning
Dr Rakib Ehsan, lead author of the report 'Understanding Islamopopulism', warned that Labour is set to be 'punished' by Muslim voters. He said: 'The data shows that the Labour Party is on course to be further punished by British Muslims in the English local elections, with a likely surge of Muslim independent candidates being elected in cities such as Birmingham and towns like Blackburn, along with a number of London boroughs including Newham.' He added that there are 'worrying levels of antisemitic conspiratorial beliefs and support for the criminalisation of blasphemy' among British Muslims in polled areas, indicating the UK is 'far from being a stable multi-faith democracy.'
Political Reaction
Conservative Party chairman Kevin Hollinrake responded: 'This research is further evidence of the worrying rise of separatism and sectarianism in our society. As Kemi Badenoch has said, identity politics is a dead end, whatever form it takes. It divides people rather than bringing them together. A cohesive culture that holds together must be built on common values, not special grievance and group pressure.'
